Updated Odds on Where Tom Brady Will Sign Now That Patriots Are Out of the Picture

Updated Odds on Where Tom Brady Will Sign Now That Patriots Are Out of the Picture article feature image
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Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Tom Brady

On Tuesday morning, Tom Brady sent a cryptic tweet, saying “I don’t know what my football future holds, but it is time for me to open a new stage of my life and career.”

That would seem to insinuate that Brady will not be re-signing with the Pats when he officially becomes an unrestricted free agent on Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET.

After the news broke on Tuesday morning, legal online sportsbooks such as PointsBet, DraftKings and FanDuel pulled odds off the board on where Brady will land, but FanDuel quickly reposted them:

Updated Odds on Where Tom Brady Will Sign

A quick primer on the odds below: -250 means that a $250 bet would win $100, while a $100 bet on +160 odds would profit $160.

  • Buccaneers -250
  • Chargers +160
  • Dolphins +750
  • Raiders +1500
  • 49ers +1900
  • Colts +3400
  • Bears +3400
  • Giants +4800
  • No team/Retired +5000

[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

According to FanDuel, here are the bet percentage and money percentage splits over the lifetime of the Brady-next-team market. (Note: These percentages don’t add up to exactly 100% because some numbers have been rounded down.)

These odds are quite a shift from where they stood at PointsBet as of early Tuesday morning:

  • Patriots -135
  • Buccaneers +110
  • Chargers +650

This news is also having a ripple effect on other markets, such as the odds to win the Super Bowl, the AFC and the AFC East.

Before Tuesday morning’s news, the Patriots were 14-1 to win the Super Bowl. Now? They’re 20-1.

Before Tuesday morning’s news, the Patriots were +650 to win the AFC. Now? They’re +1000.

Before Tuesday morning’s news, the Patriots were -200 to win the division at PointsBet. That’s equivalent to a 66.7% chance. Now? They’re tied with the Bills at +125 (equal to a 44.4% chance), with the Jets (+500) and Dolphins (+1200) far behind.

ESPN’s Mike Reiss reported on Monday that Brady’s agent Don Yee spent the better part of Monday talking with other teams. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that both the Buccaneers and Chargers offered Brady contracts with annual salaries north of $30 million per year.

The choice between Tampa Bay and L.A. is interesting from a tax perspective. If he goes to the Bucs, Brady would have no state income tax for his home games, though he would have to pay it for games he plays outside of Florida and other tax-free states. California, home of the Chargers, has the highest state income tax (13.3%)

Brady has spent all 20 years of his NFL career in New England, where he played in nine Super Bowls, won six of them, and captured three NFL MVPs.