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Commanders vs Vikings Odds, Picks, Prediction | Week 9

Commanders vs Vikings Odds, Picks, Prediction | Week 9 article feature image
Credit:

John Autey / MediaNews Group / St. Paul Pioneer Press via Getty Images. Pictured: Alexander Mattison (left) and Kirk Cousins.

  • The Vikings are road favorites against the Commanders.
  • Minnesota is in first place in the NFC North at 6-1.
  • Sam Farley breaks down the matchup and makes his betting pick below.

Commanders vs Vikings Odds

Sunday, Nov. 6
1 p.m. ET
FOX
Commanders Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+3
-105
43.5
-110o / -110u
-168
Vikings Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-3
-115
43.5
-110o / -110u
+142
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The Minnesota Vikings travel into Washington, D.C., to face the Commanders on Sunday as they look to build on their 6-1 start, which has them unbeaten in their past five games.

The Commanders will have things to say about that though and are in good form themselves, winning their past three.

Our best bet for this game focuses on a player who landed on a new team within the past week.

Commanders vs Vikings Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Commanders and Vikings match up statistically:

Commanders vs Vikings DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 11 15
Pass DVOA 18 28
Rush DVOA 4 2
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 30 21
Pass DVOA 28 22
Rush DVOA 30 16

The Vikings sit top of the NFL North, three wins clear of both the Packers and Bears and with one foot in the playoffs already. They’ve done it, as expected, on the back of their two superstars on offense.

Dalvin Cook hasn’t had a vintage season, but he’s quietly accumulated 561 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Defenses having to nullify the threat of Cook only helps Kirk Cousins as he looks to find his wideouts open.


Bet the NFL at FanDuel
Vikings -3 | Commanders +3


We already knew he was among the best in the NFL, but Justin Jefferson has underlined that this season, he’s only found the end zone three times, twice in the air and once rushing, but he’s the man on this offense. The 752 receiving yards he’s picked up this season, an average of over 100 yards per game, shows how essential Jefferson is to moving the chains on this offense.

In Washington the question is whether we have a quarterback controversy arising? It hasn’t gone unnoticed that it’s been Taylor Heinicke under center in the past two games where the team have beat the Packers and Colts, doubling Washington’s win count in just two games compared to Wentz’s six.

In the backfield, it looks like Antonio Gibson is the most dynamic playmaker, despite the return of Brian Robinson Jr., who hasn’t looked like the player we expected this year. That might be the result of his preseason injury, or perhaps he is just slower and less dynamic than we thought.

Terry McLaurin leads the wide receivers with 553 yards and has been consistent this year, but he hasn’t shown the big flashes we’ve seen previously, except for his brilliant performance against the Colts last week.

Betting Picks

One of the most surprising trades at the deadline was the Vikings moving for TJ Hockenson who has spent the last three and a half seasons at the Lions since being drafted in 2019.

Hockenson is a really talented tight end but his receiving yards line for Sunday’s game against the Commanders sits at 33.5 yards and we simply have to back the under.

For all the Commanders’ defensive flaws, they have been very good against tight ends this season. Washington has allowed an average of 28.3 yards per game to the tight end position.

The Commanders now go up against a tight end who has only just arrived at his new team, which is known for having a complex playbook and already has more options in the wide receiver room than his former Lions team had.

I love Hockenson as a player but with his great blocking ability, I’d expect to see more of him helping protect Cousins or run blocking for Cook than I would him being a receiving threat in his first game with a new team.

Pick: TJ Hockenson Under 33.5 Receiving Yards | Bet to 31.5

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