Vikings vs. Giants Betting Odds & Picks: What to Expect from Minnesota’s Offense

Vikings vs. Giants Betting Odds & Picks: What to Expect from Minnesota’s Offense article feature image

Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Adam Thielen

  • Will the Minnesota Vikings pivot to a pass-heavy offensive game plan against the New York Giants?
  • Our staff analyzes the 4.5-point spread for Sunday's game, complete with a betting pick.

Vikings at Giants Betting Odds & Picks

  • Vikings Spread: -4.5
  • Giants Spread: +4.5
  • Over/Under: 43.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs aren’t exactly happy with the Vikings’ pivot to a run-heavy offense. But days of news featuring their frustrations has spurred public speculation about whether it’ll inspire an emphasis on the passing game this week.

Is that founded?

Our experts break down the most important angles of this game, featuring a staff pick on one of Thielen’s props and Sean Koerner’s projected odds.

Vikings-Giants Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Vikings

Every Vikings is trending toward playing with the exception of CB Mackensie Alexander (elbow/groin), who was downgraded from limited practice on Wednesday to no practice on Thursday.

The Giants aren’t in too bad of shape, either, but they’ll continue to be without Saquon Barkley (ankle). LB Alec Ogletree could also be out given he has yet to practice this week. Wayne Gallman (neck) popped up on the injury report as well, but he’s trending toward playing with his limited practice sessions. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Vikings Pass Offense vs. Giants Pass Defense

Ultimately, I think the Vikings will have the biggest advantage on each side of the ball.

I don’t expect the Giants to do much on the ground without Barkley and against the Vikings’ solid run defense. That means it’ll be on the shoulders of Daniel Jones, but if there’s one thing Mike Zimmer excels at, it’s scheming up complex pressure. Add that to the natural edge pressure from Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen, who both rank inside the top 20 in pressures, and it might be a long day for the rookie who lost two fumbles to Tampa Bay and threw two picks against an atrocious Washington defense.

Meanwhile, this could be the week we see more of a passing attack from the Vikings.

I think the staff will respond to Thielen’s and Diggs’ grievances by making sure both receivers are much more involved this week, especially considering they have outstanding matchups against a very vulnerable Giants secondary. We’re talking about one of the NFL’s best wide receiver duos going up against rookie Deandre Baker and Janoris Jenkins — two corners who rank in the bottom 20 in coverage this season, per Pro Football Focus. Baker actually ranks second overall with a 29.7 cover grade. Even Olabisi Johnson might get some work against Grant Haley, who is the ninth-worst cover corner this year.

Dalvin Cook-Stefon Diggs
Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dalvin Cook, Stefon Diggs

Even after shutting down the Redskins last week, the Giants still rank 31st overall in pass yards allowed per attempt at 8.8; only the Dolphins are worse. Expect Kirk Cousins to connect on some deep balls early, especially after Minnesota successfully establishes the run to draw up the New York safeties. Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Vikings -4
  • Projected Total: 44

The potential value here could lie on the over. After opening a bit too high at 46, the market has bet the total down to 43.5. It might not be done dropping, either, as 94% of the money has come in on the under as of writing (see live public betting data here). This would make sense considering just how run-heavy the Vikings have been this season.

Thielen was clearly frustrated after last week’s loss, but he has a point: The Vikings aren’t just running when they have a lead — they even stuck to their running game in an attempt to come back against the Packers in Week 2.

There’s a saying that winning cures everything. As Stuckey alluded to, you could see the Vikings make a slight shift to throw more as the Giants secondary has been a sieve this season. It’s a perfect spot to give someone like Thielen the squeaky wheel treatment, which makes me think this game flow could lean more toward the over. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Chris Raybon: Adam Thielen Over 70.5 Receiving Yards

After a 2-6-0 line that spawned a thinly-veiled public lash-out at offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski and Cousins, which was then followed by the apology from Cousins that give birth to one of the most hilarious Deadspin headlines of all time — “Cousins Apologizes to Thielen for Being So Butt” — Thielen’s wheel is squeaking at deafening tones.

Enter a Week 5 matchup with the Giants, who just so happen to be permitting a league-worst 11.0 yards per target to wide receivers. Despite being held under 71 yards in three of four games this season, Thielen has still gone over that mark in 11-of-20 career games with Cousins.

With Thielen begging for the rock and the Giants the NFL’s most obliging defense to his position, as my colleagues have thoroughly covered, Thielen is a near-lock to crush his yardage prop this week.

His median with Cousins is 77.5, so I would bet this prop up to there.

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