Vikings vs Panthers Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 4
Getty Images. Pictured: Kirk Cousins (left) and Bryce Young (right).
Vikings vs Panthers Odds
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -230 |
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
Vikings vs. Panthers odds have moved on Sunday morning, with most books installing Minnesota as a five-point favorite.
Minnesota RB Alexander Mattison has had a rough start to the season, but he will have a chance to rebound on Sunday against a poor Panthers run defense. The Vikings' trade for Cam Akers has cast a shadow over Mattison, but this matchup provides opportunity in the rushing yards prop market.
Let's preview the game and find our favorite Vikings vs. Panthers pick.
After ending on the positive side of a lot of close games last season, the Vikings have regressed back in the opposite direction. Minnesota has lost three one-possession games to start the season against the Bucs, Eagles and Chargers.
Catching a lot of the blame for the Vikings’ slow start has been their running game, Mattison in particular. Following the departure of Dalvin Cook, Minnesota went out of its way to market Mattison as the lead back by not bringing in any serious competition. It looked like he would be unchallenged for the starting role.
Fast-forward a couple of weeks and Akers — acquired via trade with the Rams — has joined the Vikings' backfield. Now Mattison has competition for touches, but the Vikings have said they still have confidence in him being the lead back.
On the year, the Vikings have the second-worst EPA per rush, but they are actually 12th in rushing success rate. This is due to issues with fumbling and getting stuffed in high-leverage situations.
Mattison has had a chokehold on this backfield. On the year he has taken 78% of Minnesota’s rushing attempts, which is tied for the league lead and 5% higher than the next-closest challenger.
Bet Minnesota vs. Carolina at FanDuel
This week, Mattison will take on a Carolina defense that has not been good against the run.
The Panthers are 23rd in Pro Football Focus (PFF) run defense grade and 28th in rushing success rate allowed. Carolina’s rushing EPA allowed is 31st in the league, ahead of only the Broncos. The Panthers also have a 32.8 PFF tackling grade, which is 31st in the league.
The Panthers are allowing 1.44 yards before contact, which ranks 26th in the NFL. Minnesota’s offense is 29th in yards before contact, so something has to give. I think this will be a reset for the Minnesota offensive line.
According to PFF's OL/DL matchup tool, the Vikings have a 22% advantage in the run game in the trenches. This is the sixth-largest advantage for any team this week.
Vikings vs. Panthers
Betting Picks & Predictions
The game script should be in Minnesota’s favor as 4.5-point favorites, leading to Mattison seeing more work against a Carolina defense that has struggled against the run.
I believe this total is being suppressed by his early performances this season, as well as the fear of Akers taking away touches. However, I believe Mattison — coming off his best game of the season (93 yards on 20 carries vs. the Chargers) — will still see a lion’s share of the work.
At 55.5 I see Mattison breezing over this total. I would take this up to 59.5 as Mattison re-establishes himself as the Vikings’ lead back.
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