Locky’s First Period NHL Model 3/3: Fireworks in San Jose?

Locky’s First Period NHL Model 3/3: Fireworks in San Jose? article feature image
Credit:

Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Kane

Good morning!

There were a multitude of small edges vs. the openers yesterday, which went 3-5. That also doesn’t even count OTHER edges that emerged throughout the day (Dallas over was actually one, if you can believe it, although not for very long).

It was a busy day, even if it was an unprofitable one.


A Reminder

If you’re new here, I built a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.

To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.


Chicago Blackhawks at San Jose Sharks

10 p.m. ET on ESPN+

Today’s slate is marked by a very striking combination of high-scoring first-period teams: Chicago (on a back-to-back) at San Jose.

We are all aware of the Blackhawks’ exploits at this point, as they have basically become first-period celebrities in gambling media.

San Jose is very aggressive in the first in its own right: The Sharks actually score 35% of their goals in the first, 3% more than Chicago does. They allow more than the league average, too.

In a game with an implied total in the market of about 6.6-6.7 at the moment, the likelihood of scoring in the first is high.


Locky’s First-Period NHL Over/Unders: Full Slate Projections

Download the Excel doc to input odds from your sportsbooks. The table below is best viewed on a desktop computer.

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