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NHL Odds, Preview, Expert Prediction: Ducks vs. Flyers (January 17)

NHL Odds, Preview, Expert Prediction: Ducks vs. Flyers (January 17) article feature image
Credit:

Rob Marczynski/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Nicolas Deslauriers and Samuel Ersson

  • The Flyers are home favorites on Tuesday night against the Ducks.
  • The Ducks have been struggling all around, and they face an underrated goaltender tonight.
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Ducks vs. Flyers Odds

Ducks Odds -180
Flyers Odds +140
Over/Under 6 (-117/-105)
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV NBCSP
Odds via Barstool. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Metropolitan Division’s Philadelphia Flyers host the Pacific Division’s Anaheim Ducks in a matchup where two clubs look to turn their seasons around. These two teams squared off just two weeks ago in a game that saw the Flyers grab a 4-1 victory on the road.

Here’s a look at the odds, as well as our pick and prediction for the Anaheim Ducks vs. Philadelphia Flyers.

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Stolarz and the Ducks Struggling

The Anaheim Ducks continue to chase Columbus and Chicago in their quest to tank for Connor Bedard, a quest that is going swimmingly as of late. Entering this contest, the Ducks have lost six of their last eight games, with five of those six losses coming by at least a three-goal margin.

This trend is likely to continue with goaltender Anthony Stolarz slated to take the crease for Anaheim. Through 15 appearances in net this season (many of which in relief), he is 3-5 with a .893 save percentage (SV%) and 3.88 Goals Against Average (GAA).

Based on his metrics, positive regression is unlikely for the backup netminder. If he qualified, Stolarz would rank 23rd among starting goaltenders in Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.

In front of Stolarz is perhaps the worst blue line in hockey. At 5-on-5, the Ducks rank last in the league in Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).

However, the offense is hardly any better as Anaheim ranks third-to-last in the league in Expected Goals For per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5.


Ersson and the Flyers Surging

Entering this contest in opposite form as the Ducks, the Philadelphia Flyers have won seven of their last nine games, with six of those seven wins coming by at least a two-goal margin. We are catching some great value in Philadelphia’s puckline because rookie goaltender Samuel Ersson is slated to start between the pipes for the Flyers.

Ersson has been outstanding in relief of starter Carter Hart this season. Through six appearances in the crease, he is 4-0 with a stellar .924 SV% and 2.30 GAA.

Over the four games he has started, the Flyers covered the puckline all four times. One of those games came against the Ducks, a contest in which Ersson stopped 28 of 29 shots for a .966 SV% en route to a 4-1 road win.

Getting a shot to repeat that performance on home ice should not be too much to ask for from the rookie goaltender, especially based on his underlying metrics. If he qualified, Ersson would rank first (!!) among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5.

While the 23-year-old’s sample size is obviously small, both his surface-level stats and underlying metrics are immensely impressive nonetheless.


Ducks vs. Flyers Pick

Another reason for this generous line is that the Flyers’ metrics at 5-on-5 are also unimpressive, ranking in the bottom half of the league in both xGF/60 and xGA/60. However, they still rank higher than the Ducks in each of those key categories and should also boast the goaltending advantage.

With the better offense, defense, goaltender and home-ice advantage, the Flyers should once again take care of business against the lowly Ducks. In fact, Philadelphia has now won five of the last seven meetings between these two clubs.

Anaheim’s quest for Bedard should continue to go well, especially considering the lack of output from this team. Mason McTavish is finally coming into his own, they knows what they have in Troy Terry and Trevor Zegras, and Adam Henrique continues to serve as a solid veteran presence.

Outside of those four guys, Ducks’ fans have not had much to hang their hats on this season other than the hope of winning the draft lottery this offseason.

Pick: Flyers -1.5 (+143) | Play down to (+125)


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