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NHL Odds, Pick, Prediction: Ducks vs. Coyotes (April 1)

NHL Odds, Pick, Prediction: Ducks vs. Coyotes (April 1) article feature image
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Jeff Vinnick/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Karel Vejmelka #70 of the Arizona Coyotes.

  • The Anaheim Ducks and Arizona Coyotes will meet Friday in a matchup of two struggling teams.
  • The Ducks are looking to snap an 11-game losing streak are 1-6 in their past seven games.
  • Greg Liodice explains why he sees value in betting the over/under.

Ducks vs. Coyotes Odds

Ducks Odds -120
Coyotes Odds +100
Over/Under 5.5 (-125 / +105)
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

As we approach the final month of the season, the men start to get separated from the boys. In this bout the Arizona Coyotes host the Anaheim Ducks who are both struggling mightily. It’ll be the third time both teams square off as each have  a victory over each other. Who takes the cake in this rubber match?

Anaheim is one of the more interesting teams in the league. After an exceptional start to the season, the Ducks have quickly moved out of playoff contention after losing 11 in a row.

Spending all of this season at the bottom of the standings, the Coyotes have not much else to play for. After going through a hot streak, the Yotes have quickly cooled down with a 3-6-1 record in their last 10 games.

Anaheim Ducks

The Ducks are an exciting team, make no bones about it. Combining young talent like Troy Terry, Trevor Zegras, and Sonny Milano with experienced veterans like Ryan Getzlaf, Cam Fowler and Kevin Shattenkirk will help moving forward. However, production from everyone around has dipped and it’s affected their place in the standings.

It’s really been a fall from grace in Orange County, as the Ducks used to be one of the better teams at creating offense. Nowadays, they only score 2.75 goals per game and are 18th in expected goals with a 48.72 xGF%. They are still relatively decent on the power play, as they score 22.4% of the time, but that number was a bit higher a month or so ago.

Defensively, the Ducks haven’t been a terrible team over the course of the season. They let up about 3.18 goals per game, and their penalty kill is at an average 80.6%.

John Gibson started last night against Dallas, which leaves tonight’s job up to backup Anthony Stolarz tonight. Stolarz hasn’t played in a few weeks but has had an exceptional year, posting a .919 SV% and a -1.8 GSAx.


Arizona Coyotes

Arizona is ready to move onto next year, but there is some talent there. Phil Kessel has been a quality veteran, as well as players like Nick Schmaltz, Shayne Gostisbehere, and Lawson Crouse. Unfortunately for the Yotes, in a terrible turn of events, Clayton Keller suffered a gruesome injury that will keep him out for the year in the midst of a career season.

What shouldn’t be a surprise is that the Coyotes rank near or at the bottom in every offensive category. Scoring at a 2.57 goals per game pace, the Yotes have the league’s worst expected goals rate at 41.5. Not only that, but they’re a bottom 3 team on the power play, where they score  13.7% of the time.

On the defensive side, Arizona isn’t much better at all. Even though the goaltending has held up fine, the defense is porous, allowing 3.55 goals per game, and a 73.3% success rate on the penalty kill.

Since trading Scott Wedgewood to Dallas, Karel Vejmelka has taken the crease full time. Given that Arizona has been a bottom feeder all season, Vejmelka is posting wonderful numbers with a .906 SV% and a -9.7 GSAx.

His GSAx might not look very appealing, but there’s no denying that the Czech netminder has given his team ample chances to win games.

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Ducks vs. Coyotes Pick

To say it’s been a struggle for both teams would be an understatement; that makes this bet all the more fun!

It’s tricky because both teams are playing pretty awful hockey over their past 10 games, and the numbers don’t work in their favor. Anaheim has managed to score 2.2 goals per game over the course of the past seven games while Arizona has only scored two goals a game in that span.

Ultimately, I think goaltending will prevail in this bout, especially given the lack of production on both ends. Vejmelka has been great and has been tested all season, while Stolarz is as reliable in net as any other backup.

I’m picking the under.

Pick: Under 5.5 (+105)

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