NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Red Wings vs Canadiens (Tuesday, April 16)
(Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images) Pictured: Lucas Raymond (right) celebrates after scoring the game-winning goal Monday.
Red Wings vs. Canadiens Odds
| Red Wings Odds | -190 |
| Canadiens Odds | +160 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -105o / -115u |
Here's everything you need to know about the Detroit Red Wings vs Montreal Canadiens on Tuesday, April 16 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Red Wings authored an incredible comeback from 4-1 down in the first leg of this home-and-home set, capped off by Lucas Raymond's 5-4 overtime winner.
If the Red Wings win this game and the Capitals lose in any fashion, Detroit will secure the final wild-card spot and face the Rangers in the first round.
Let's break down the matchup in our Red Wings vs. Canadiens preview.
The Red Wings' amazing comeback in game 81 can be taken as a reasonable synopsis towards their entire season. Some ugly defensive breakdowns forced them into an early hole, but their potent offense was able to pay off some quality chances in the clutch to grab a spectacular win.
The Red Wings generated 3.49 xGoals to the Canadiens' 1.96 in the game. The caveat to that stat, though, would be that game script played a huge factor, and all of the Canadiens' goals came on complete defensive breakdowns.
Whether the Red Wings secure the final playoff berth or not, their defensive core is going to need some upgrades to be a true contender next season.
Wings fans have to be enthused by the play of captain Dylan Larkin, and 21-year -old star Lucas Raymond. Both have displayed incredible form down the stretch, and have come through with a number of critical goals.
The Red Wings have not confirmed a starting goaltender for this matchup at the time of writing, and it is difficult to predict if they will go back to Alex Lyo, or turn to backup James Reimer. My guess is it's Reimer considering the back-to-back spot, and the fact that the pair have posted similar numbers. Reimer owns a -0.3 GSAx and .905 save percentage across 24 appearances this season.
Coach Martin St. Louis won't be happy with the way his young side collapsed down the stretch last night, but will surely approve of the overall effort put forth. That's been the story of the season, as his team has competed consistently, but often had the wrinkles of a less-talented roster shine through.
Top prospect Lane Hutson made a strong NHL debut in Monday's matchup. He didn't just tip-toe in to the water either; he played 21:54 and recorded an assist. Hutson already raises the floor of the Canadiens blue line, particularly with Kaiden Guhle and Arber Xhekaj on the sidelines.
Over the last 10 games, the Canadiens have allowed 4.10 xGA/60 and 33.58 shots against per 60.
The Canadiens will likely give this start to Cayden Primeau. He has played to a +4.8 GSAx and .910 save percentage across 22 appearances.
Red Wings vs. Canadiens
Betting Pick & Prediction
This game will feature a playoff atmosphere and be contested in front of what is generally considered to be hockey's most lively crowd. The Canadiens gave the Wings all they could handle last night, and it seems reasonable to feel they will find a way to make tonight's matchup competitive.
Don't over value the "have to win" narratives in games like this. It's Game 82 for Montreal on home ice, and they will be just as up for the matchup as Detroit. It does seem likely the Wings will find a way here, but I'm not convinced there is value at -192.
Where I do see value is backing Dlan Larkin and Raymond to lead the way for Detroit once again. If Detroit wins, I think it will mean a high team total, and both have been in incredible form throughout this playoff push.
We cashed these bets on yesterday's game, and I do not believe there is any reason to shake it up too much in Tuesday's rematch with the prices set the same. You can bet Larkin and Raymond both to record a single point at +120 on Bet365, and I see value backing that down to +110. If you can not get that bet, I would pivot to playing just Raymond to record a point.
I am also going to add Larkin to record over 3.5 shots on goal to my card for this matchup. Four shots was a relatively low output considering all of his touches last night, and how many attempts were missed high and wide. At anything better than even money there is value betting the Wings captain to record four shots on goal.
Pick: Dylan Larkin Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+105 via DraftKings; Play to +100) | Larkin + Raymond Over 0.5 Points Parlay (+120 via Bet365; Play to +115)
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