Sabres vs Maple Leafs Prediction: NHL Odds & Preview (Wednesday, March 6)
Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images. Pictured: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen #1 of the Buffalo Sabres
Sabres vs. Maple Leafs Prediction & Odds
| Sabres Odds | +160 |
| Maple Leafs Odds | -192 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -112/ -108 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Buffalo Sabres vs. Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday, March 6 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
Buffalo has had Toronto's number over the past couple of seasons, winning the past three meetings while priced as the underdog each time.
Will the Sabres pull off the upset once again? Or can the Leafs grab their revenge on home ice?
Let's dig into the odds and make a Sabres vs. Maple Leafs pick and prediction in my NHL betting preview.
Buffalo enters this contest in good form, winning five of its past seven games. I believe this trend will continue on Wednesday evening as goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is slated to guard the cage for the Sabres.
Luukkonen has been brilliant this season, posting a 19-16-2 record with a .914 SV% and 2.46 GAA through 38 appearances in the crease. He's allowed two or fewer goals in 15 of his past 21 starts, going 13-8 with a commanding .931 SV% and 1.91 GAA over that stretch.
With this stellar play and some decent two-way play in front of him, Luukkonen and Buffalo rank in the top half of the league in both goals allowed per game and shots on goal allowed per game.
This offense is also due for positive regression as it is creating high-danger scoring chances but just failing to convert on a recent basis.
At 5-on-5, the Sabres rank 13th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60).
This expected offensive regression is likely to occur against Toronto. Entering this matchup, the Leafs rank 20th in goals allowed per game.
This blue line bleeds high danger scoring chances, ranking 26th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5. That ranking is a few spots below Buffalo.
Backing up the Maple Leafs' inefficient blue line is goaltender Ilya Samsonov, who has struggled to deal with the product in front of him this season. Through 28 starts, Samsonov possesses a .883 SV% and 3.23 GAA.
These woes are likely to continue against the Sabres, a team he just surrendered five goals to in his latest start against them en route to a 9-3 loss.
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Sabres vs. Maple Leafs
Betting Pick & Prediction
There is a lot to like about Buffalo at +164 via DraftKings, a line that I believe is too long in this matchup. In fact, there is some built-in value on that number by itself as it is six to nine cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
Beyond that, I would take Luukkonen over Samsonov every day of the week. Furthermore, the Sabres' blue line does a better job at preventing high-danger scoring chances than Toronto's.
While the Leafs possess home-ice advantage, their .548 home win percentage is not that much better than Buffalo's .500 road win percentage. The Maple Leafs are stronger offensively, but I don't think that warrants enough for them to be priced as wide as -198.
Pick: Sabres (+164 at DraftKings) | Play to +155
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