Friday NHL Odds, Picks, Prediction: Winnipeg Jets vs. Dallas Stars Betting Preview

Jets vs. Stars Odds

Out in the Lone Star State, the Dallas Stars host the Winnipeg Jets in a Central Division matchup. This will be the second time both teams face off, with the first time resulting in a Jets shootout win.

Winnipeg is coming off a very fiery win over the Wild on Tuesday but has played rather poorly in its last 10 games, going 3-5-2. Since Dave Lowry took over as head coach, the Jets have gone 6-7-2, and are nine points out of a playoff spot.

The Stars are coming off a wild game against Nashville that resulted in a 4-3 victory. Dallas has had a rocky season, but it's playing better as of late. It's gone 6-4 in its last 10 and finds itself four points out of the playoffs.

Jets Need to Capitalize on Talent

It’s wild that the Jets are even in the position they’re in. They are absolutely loaded with talent on both ends and yet find themselves far away from the promised land.

All-Star Kyle Connor has been absolute dynamite, scoring over a point per game, and Andrew Copp has played great as well. However, key contributors like Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler have both been disappointing. They’ll also be without Nikolaj Ehlers, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Logan Stanley tonight. 

With injuries on the forefront, along with disappointing performances, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Jets aren’t great at creating offense. They stand at 23rd in expected goals per 60 minutes with a 2.22 xGF/60 and are middle-of-the-road at creating high-danger chances. The power play is decent, as they score at a 20.7% rate, however.

Their defense is one of their strong suits. Winnipeg does a fairly good job of preventing opposing high-danger chances, and it doesn't allow many goals either.

In goal, I see no reason why Connor Hellebuyck doesn’t start tonight. He’s gotten the majority of the starts, and backup Eric Comrie just played a week and a half ago. Hellebuyck, the former Vezina winner, has been wonderful with a .913 SV% and a fantastic 14.3 GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected).

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Look for Defensive Production From Dallas

Dallas, like Winnipeg, has an extraordinarily deep team but with some disappointments along the way.

Joe Pavelski is having a fantastic All-Star season, and Jason Robertson is making his mark on the league. However, captain Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin both have not been playing up to snuff. 

The Stars are a fairly mediocre team at driving play. They rank 22nd with a 2.26 xGF/60 and 13th in high-danger chances created. With the man advantage, however, they’re fantastic, scoring at a 26% clip.

Defensively, Dallas is actually exceptional. It ranks 10th in high-danger chances allowed, along with being 17th in goals allowed.

Braden Holtby and Jake Oettinger have split starts this season. While Holtby has dealt with injuries and COVID-19 issues, it seems Oettinger has earned the trust of coach Rick Bowness. The American netminder is posting a .910 SV% as well as a 0.1 GSAx, while Holtby owns a .913 SV% and a -0.5 GSAx.

Either way, you should expect the same type of production no matter who’s in net, as those stats are nearly identical.

Jets-Stars Pick

This is a tricky game to predict because of how similar both teams are. While Winnipeg and Dallas each have players with the capability of putting the puck in the net, I’m not sure this will be a game where a ton of scoring occurs.

With exceptional goaltending and strong defenses on either side, I actually see value in the under. 

Pick:  Under 5.5 (-105)