Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Matt Duchene
Betting odds: Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens
- Senators moneyline: +160
- Canadiens moneyline: -185
- Over/Under: 6.5
- Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
NHL value plays: 25-20, +12.88 units
Don’t look now but the Ottawa Senators are rolling.
The Sens, who came into the season with the lowest expectations in the NHL, have won three in a row and sit just two points out of the final Wild Card spot after 25 games. It likely won’t last, but Ottawa has quietly been a nice story after a tumultuous offseason.
On Tuesday night the Senators visit the team they are chasing for the final playoff spot, the Montreal Canadiens, as +160 underdogs.
Even though their 12-12-3 record suggests they are an average team, the Senators are quite bad. They have a league-worst 43.2% Corsi Rating (CF%) and their -8.3 expected goal differential is sixth-worst in the circuit. Ottawa is getting by thanks to a league-best 10.9 shooting % at 5v5 and that will not last.
The Canadiens have strong predictive numbers. The Habs rank in the top 10 in high-danger scoring chance %, expected goals % and CF%.