Barcelona vs Napoli Odds, Pick, Prediction | Champions League Match Preview

Tuesday, Mar. 12

3 p.m. ET

Paramount+

Barcelona Odds	-118
Napoli Odds	+300
Draw	+280
Over / Under	2.5  -143 / +110

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

After a 1-1 draw in Naples there is everything to play for in this second leg between Barcelona and Napoli.

Barcelona are in a very interesting position as club. They are well behind Real Madrid in the La Liga title race and are now dealing with some injuries to key players. On top of that, their manager Xavi is set to leave at the end of the season, so there are question marks as to what direction the club is actually heading in, especially with their impending financial crisis.

Napoli are in a very interesting position right now. They are sitting outside the top six in Serie A and on their third manager of the season. They did manage to finish second in the Champions League group behind Real Madrid and are in a position to get the quarterfinals after a 1-1 draw in the first leg, so it wouldn't be a complete failure of a season if they can get by Barcelona at Camp Nou.

Here's my Barcelona vs Napoli pick.

It's been an interesting season for Barcelona. The first couple years under Xavi they were building towards being one of the best teams in Europe, but now they are staring at a potential trophy-less season. So, where did it all go wrong? In my opinion, it has a lot to do with how bad they've been out of possession.

Barcelona are not a bad defensive team by the numbers, but a lot of that has to do with how much possession they hold. When you hold 64.5% of the ball it's going to be difficult for opposing teams to generate a lot of high quality chances. What the problem has been for Barcelona is their ability to defend in transition and also defend their penalty box. Barcelona are dead last in La Liga in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed and as you can see below they are one of the worst teams across Europe in putting in the hard work that is required to defend your penalty area.

With all of that being said, they did a fantastic job in the first leg against Napoli because Napoli did not take a shot in the first half and did not create over one expected goal for the match. In fact, ever since the 3-3 debacle against Granada, Barcelona have only allowed 3.2 expected goals over their last five matches.

It will likely be a more defensive lineup than maybe Xavi would want to play in the second leg because Barcelona are going to be without Pedri and Frankie De Jong for an extended period of time. That means İlkay Gündoğan is going to have be more of a deep lying playmaker in build up rather than being the supplier that he normally is in the final third for the attack, which will force Barcelona to play a little bit differently than they normally do.

It's been a strange season for Napoli coming off winning their first Serie A title in over three decades. They are now on their third different manager of the season as Francesco Calzona is now in charge until the rest of the season. They looked pretty bad in the first half against Barcelona in the first leg as Calzona admitted there was some miscommunications in the tactical plan.

What is interesting about Napoli is they started out the season with Rudi Garcia, who played a very modern high pressing, possession based style. They then switched to Walter Mazzari, who is by nature a 3-5-2 direct type of manager, but they kept the same tactical plan as before and it just didn't work.

Calzona has kept the same 4-3-3 shape and the peformances have been getting better. Since the draw with Barcelona they are unbeaten in their last four matches with a +4.2 xGD and they have held over 60% possession in all four of those matches. The problem is, they are most likely not going to hold a majority of the possession at Camp Nou, so we will see how good Napoli are out of possession here in the second leg and if they can hold Barcelon under one expected goal again.

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This is maybe the most difficult match to predict of the remaining four Champions League ties. Both of these clubs are in a state of peril and there really wasn't much to separate the two sides in the first leg.

With Barcelona being without Pedri and Frankie De Jong it leaves them very limited in what they can do in the midfield. De Jong is the conductor of their build up, usually dropping into the back line to receive the ball. Without him that means İlkay Gündoğan is going to have to play that role, which will put a damper on Barcelona's offensive success because he is so much better in an advanced midfield role.

Napoli have drastically underperformed their underlying metrics this season, but it's not really clear what their plan is tactically. They have been a good defensive team in Serie A, allowing only 0.93 npxG per 90 minutes, so they are very capable sitting in a defensive block and daring Barcelona to break them down.

There were only 1.6 expected goals created between these two sides in the first leg, so I am expecting a similar cagey affair.

Pick: Under 2.5 (+112 via BetRivers)