Europa League Predictions, Odds | Best Bets & Expert Picks for Liverpool vs Atalanta, Milan vs Roma, More

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Dabbundo: Atalanta were my dark horse pick to win this tournament at +2500 prior to the knockout portion kick-off in February. They rescued their round of 16 tie against Sporting Lisbon in the second half of the second leg with two goals to advance on aggregate, and now the Italian side faces off against heavy tournament favorite Liverpool.

Given the Reds' chase for the Premier League title, there are real questions about how much Jurgen Klopp will rotate, if at all. The Reds do have Trent Alexander-Arnold and Diogo Jota back in training this week and Klopp could use the extra squad depth as they attempt to compete across multiple fronts (as do Arsenal and Manchester City).

Atalanta aren't the free flowing, highly aggressive, overlapping center backs version of Atalanta that lit up the Champions and Europa Leagues in recent years past. This version of Atalanta has real ball winning and stopping in defense. La Dea have the most ball recoveries in Serie A, allow the fewest crosses and progressive dribbles.

Atalanta are just ninth in final third entries yet is highly efficient at turning their limited number of touches there into quality shots inside the penalty area. Overall, they have a +0.32 xG difference in Serie A, which is more than a full goal worse than Liverpool domestically once you adjust the numbers to their Premier League outlook.

The Italian side loves to use its width from the wide fullbacks to send in crosses into the penalty area. The wide areas on the flanks are typically controlled by Atalanta, but it’s difficult to see Davide Zappacosta getting forward too often from his wing back position to get into dangerous crossing areas.

That will put a lot of pressure on the creativity of Ademola Lookman on the break. Atalanta played Inter twice, and lost 2-1 at home and 4-0 on the road. That doesn’t leave much confidence for their ability to get a result at Anfield.

While I think Atalanta’s attack will really struggle to create without establishing territorial control to use its wing backs, the defense can hold up enough to keep this game under the inflated total.

Pick: Liverpool to win & Under 3.5 (+150)

Thursady, April 11th

3 p.m. ET

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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Dabbundo: It’s an all-Italian affair in the Europa League quarterfinals as Roma will play the first leg at San Siro on Thursday as a modest road underdog. Milan have the higher position in the table in Serie A by 13 full points, but the two sides are closer together in true talent than the table would suggest. For example, the two clubs are just five goals apart in goal difference and three goals apart in expected goal difference. Milan have small advantages overall, but it’s important to note that Roma fired José Mourinho mid season in the midst of poor form and has steadily improved results and marginally improved performance since his firing and the appointment of Daniele De Rossi.

In fact, it was Roma’s 3-1 defeat at Milan (xG was 1.5-1.4) that led to Mourinho’s sacking in mid-January. Since then, Roma have played 11 matches in Serie A with eight wins, two draws and just one defeat under De Rossi. In Europe, Roma had the toughest matchups of any quarterfinal squad and still took out Feyenoord on penalties followed by Brighton, 4-1 on aggregate.

Milan have considerably better attacking output, but their defense has fallen off when compared to its Scudetto-winning campaign in 2021-22 and their Champions League semifinal run last year. Despite the decline in goal scoring environment across Italy this season, Milan’s defense fell from 1.01 xGA per match last year down to 1.15 xGA per match this season.

The defense ranks below average in box entries allowed and preventing progressive passes and dribbles through the middle of the pitch. Milan’s lack of ball winning in the defensive midfield will make it difficult to stop Roma’s transition attacks on the counter through Paulo Dybala.

With these two teams even in my view, home field advantage (less in Europe when the two teams are from the same country) isn’t enough to make Milan this much of a home favorite.

I’d bet Roma to win or draw at -120 or better.

Pick: Roma +0.5 (-120 or better)

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Thursday, April 11th

3 p.m. ET

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Leverkusen Odds	-275
West Ham Odds	+700
Draw	+400
Over / Under	2.5  -152 / +126

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Leverkusen are a really difficult team to defend because of how well the utilize the third man concept in and around the box, which is generally find a space in the opponent's defensive block, try to get a 3 v 2 advantage and use short passing combinations to create a shot. Well, if there was ever a defense to be able to do that to with relative ease, it would be West Ham.

David Moyes is old school and has his team plays a mixture of a zonal and man to man lower block, but when they face really good build up teams, they really struggle. If you don’t believe me go look and see how they did in both meetings against Arsenal and Manchester City. The second meeting against Arsenal was particularly alarming when Arsenal were constantly getting 3 v 2 advantages through all phases of build up and eventually broke through. Once that first goal went in, the floodgates opened, which is pretty typical of a team like West Ham, who really struggle when they have to chase the game. When playing from behind in the Premier League this season, West Ham are allowing 2.07 xG per 90 minutes, so having to play a team as good in build up and in the final third as Leverkusen is a nightmare matchup.

West Ham do have the personnel to be able to give Leverkusen some problems in transition. Even though Bowen might not play, Kudus and Paqueta have the ability to rip apart any team on the break. West Ham can also take advantage of the one main weakness for Leverkusen, which has been defending set pieces. Leverkusen are allowing the highest xG per set piece in Germany, while West Ham have always made them a priority under David Moyes.

With how bad West Ham have been defensively I don’t really see a scenario where Leverkusen is held under two expected goals, but West Ham can give them problems in transition and on set pieces, so I like the value on the over.

Pick: Over 3 (+107 via bet365)

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Thursday, April 11th

3 p.m. ET

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Benfica Odds	-135
Marseille Odds	+340
Draw	+260
Over / Under	2.5  -142 / +118

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Cunningham: Benfica matches in Europe have been pretty chaotic. They’ve allowed a relatively low amount of expected goals domestically, but during the Champions League group stage they conceded 15.9 expected goals, which was the most of anyone in the competition.

Even over their two legs against Toulouse in the knockout round, who are a bottom half of the table team in France, they conceded 2.5 expected goals over their two legs. Against Rangers they were better defensively over two legs, but there is still something glaring with them defensively and it’s there ability to defend good transition teams. That last transition team that they’ve faced around Marseille’s level was Inter during the Champions League group stage and they conceded 6.8 expected goals in their two meetings.

Marseille have hit a bit of a tough difficult run of form, losing three straight Ligue 1 matches to Rennes, Lille and PSG, but the underlying numbers offensively weren’t as bad as scoring only one goal. They actually have been pretty good under caretaker manager Jean-Louis Gasset, as they have a +3.8 npxGD in his six Ligue 1 matches in charge.

One thing that Jean-Louis Gasset has done is allow Marseille to play more open attacking football, which has led to some high event matches. With Marseille having the likes of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Amine Harit and Iliman Ndiaye, who all are over a 0.35 xG + xA per 90 minutes, they can really open up this Benfica defense.

I only have Benfica projected at +113, so I like the value on Marseille +0.5 at +106.

Pick: Marseille +0.5 (-107 via bet365)