Premier League Odds, Picks & Predictions For Newcastle United vs. Aston Villa On Friday
Jack Thomas – WWFC/Wolves via Getty Images. Pictured: Aston Villa standout Ollie Watkins, left, chats with teammate Tyrone Mings.
- Newcastle United welcomes Aston Villa to St. James' Park for Friday's crucial Premier League match.
- The Magpies, stuck in 16th place and part of the relegation fight, face an opponent that's missing star playmaker Jack Grealish.
- Jeremy Pond on how he expects a low-scoring affair below.
Newcastle vs. Aston Villa Odds
|Aston Villa Odds||+102|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+114 / -141)|
|Day | Time||Friday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds as of Thursday evening via DraftKings.|
Clubs with plenty on the line the remainder of the Premier League season go at it Friday when Newcastle United hosts Aston Villa in a crucial showdown.
The Magpies, who have suddenly found themselves in a relegation battle, are fighting to stay above the bottom three in the table from here on out. This match gives them a golden opportunity to pick up much-needed points against an opponent they’ve dominated on home soil as of late.
As for the Villans, visions of European tournament football is still in sight. The visitors are currently in ninth place in England’s top flight, sitting just two points behind defending champion Liverpool. A steady run of results the remainder of the campaign could have Aston Villa fighting for a coveted spot in next season’s Europa League competition.
Both clubs are coming off draws in their most recent fixtures. Newcastle, which is winless in its last four league outings, settled for scoreless tie against lowly West Bromwich Albion, and Aston Villa drew with Wolves.
Manager Steve Bruce has little time to right the ship at St. James’ Park. The Magpies, who have suddenly found themselves in the murky waters of the drop zone, have a measly two in their last 18 matches across all competitions. Overall, Newcastle is 2-12-4 (W-L-D) during that horrific stretch of games.
Injuries have been the latest issue for Bruce’s side, with the club missing the standout triumvirate of Callum Wilson, Miguel Almiron and Allan Saint-Maximin and Miguel Almiron. All three aren’t expected to be back until after the upcoming international break.
Statistically, Newcastle has some of the worst numbers in the advanced metrics. The Magpies sit on a stagnant 25.3 expected goals and disappointing 38.0 xGA, resulting in a brutal -12.7 xGDiff and -0.47 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Newcastle is 16th overall in xGDiff, which coincidentally matches its place in the league standings.
Despite having an inconsistent run of things as of late, the Villans did enough in the early and middle parts of the season to still find itself in decent position.
Ollie Watkins continues to shine with Aston Villa, leading the club with 10 goals. However, the loss of standout Jack Grealish (six goals/10 assists) has ravaged the offense, which has found the back of the net just three times in its last five matches.
Grealish has recovered from the knock that kept him sidelined for a month, missing four matches for the Villans. Unfortunately for Aston Villa, Grealish is suffering from another ailment and will not dress for this Newcastle meeting.
When comparing numbers with Newcastle, Aston Villa is in much better shape than its opponent in all categories. The Villans sit on a respectable 38.8 xG and 33.4 xGA, generating a decent +5.4 xGDiff and +0.21 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Picks
If you’re looking for goals galore and explosive offenses to kick off the weekend card, you’re likely going to be very disappointed.
The offensive ineptitude hounding Newcastle and Aston Villa will again be on full display in this contest, which has led me to back the total staying under the alternative number of 2.25 goals as my top pick.
There have been two goals or fewer in the last 10 meetings between the Magpies and Villans, so I see that streak continuing in this spot. Throw in that the total has stayed under 2.5 goals in their last four road games in league play, and all signs point to another low-scoring confrontation.
If you’re looking for a side, I actually recommend avoiding both and taking a swing on the Draw at ripe +245 odds via DraftKings. Aston Villa is the better side on paper, but the fact that the club is winless in its last 12 matches at St. James’ Park has me believing we’re more likely to see a stalemate in this spot.
Picks: Draw +245 | Total Under 2.25 Goals (-106)
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