MLS Week 8 Betting Odds, Preview: Should Seattle Be This Big an Underdog vs. LAFC?
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LAFC goalkeeper Tyler Miller (1) makes a save against Seattle defender Gustav Svensson (4)
- LAFC and Seattle Sounders, arguably the two best clubs in MLS this season, will meet at Banc of California Stadium on Sunday (7 p.m. ET on FS1).
- We break down the entire betting market for MLS Week 8 including the biggest line moves, public vs. sharp wagers and value plays to make.
There are plenty of intriguing matchups in MLS this weekend, including NYC FC vs. D.C. United, Atlanta United vs. FC Dallas and Philadelphia vs. Montreal, but Sunday’s meeting between LAFC and Seattle takes the cake.
The Sounders will be looking for some revenge on LAFC after suffering 1-0 losses in both meetings last season. The Sounders are still undefeated this season (5 wins, 1 draw) while LAFC fell for the first time all year on Wednesday night at Vancouver.
The upset win by the Whitecaps as +300 underdogs pushed home teams above .500 this season:
- Home Wins: 39 of 77 matches, -1.63 units
- Road Wins: 19 of 77, 0.00 u
- Draws: 19 of 77, -1.40 u
Incredibly, road teams have earned exactly 0 units based on market consensus closing moneylines.
MLS Week 8 Odds and Betting Breakdown
Every total on the board is listed at 3 goals or more for Week 8 and it should be no surprise to see Toronto FC-Minnesota United with the highest.
They combined for 12 goals in two all-time meetings, and each club has seen an average of 4 goals per game in their last five matches this season.
Currently 68% of bettors are taking the over (3.5) for Friday night.
Notable MLS Line Moves
If you enjoy getting inflated prices on road underdogs, this is your weekend. Since odds opened, the line has moved toward the home favorite for all three Friday games and the first five Saturday matches, too.
- FC Cincinnati (+105 to -120 vs. Real Salt Lake
- Toronto FC (-140 to -160) vs. Minnesota Utd
- LA Galaxy (-115 to -130) vs. Houston
- Philadelphia (-125 to -140) vs. Montreal
- Chicago (-150 to -160) vs. Colorado
- Orlando City (-130 to -160) vs. Vancouver
- Atlanta United (-120 to -170) vs. FC Dallas
- Columbus (-135 to -160) vs. Portland
Each underdog is listed between +320 and +490 to pull off an outright upset, although I still don’t love the value on any of them at the moment. Instead, I’m looking toward both road underdogs on Sunday night, NYC FC and Seattle.
Sharp vs. Public Bets
- FC Cincinnati vs. Real Salt Lake
- San Jose vs. Sporting KC
- NYC FC at D.C. United
- Seattle at LAFC
Real Salt Lake are trendy public underdogs on Friday night but sharp bettors have honed in on FC Cincinnati to win at home, driving the line from even money to -125.
Sporting KC could end up being the most popular bet of the weekend, yet the market has actually adjusted toward San Jose so far. The Earthquakes have been better in their last two matches after losing the first four, and Sporting KC may still be recovering from a busy early schedule.
NYC FC are another side receiving early smart money as they search for their first victory of the season (5 draws, 1 loss). D.C. United are currently atop the Eastern Conference standings but have looked shaky in their last three matches. There’s still good value on NYC FC at +300 odds to pick up a win.
In Sunday’s marquee matchup, more than 80% of bets has come in on LAFC but nearly 70% of the early money is on Seattle.
These were my two Cup picks from the Western Conference and I don’t see enough difference in the squads right now to warrant this gap in the odds. LAFC also had to play on the road late Wednesday night while Seattle will have a full week off.
Value Plays (MLS Season Record: 7-14-1, -4.65 units)
- LA Galaxy-Houston Over 3 (-125)
- NYC FC (+300) at D.C. United
- Seattle (+360) at LAFC
2019 MLS Cup Odds
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