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Norwich City vs. Manchester City Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Target Over/Under in Lopsided Matchup (Feb. 12)

Norwich City vs. Manchester City Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Target Over/Under in Lopsided Matchup (Feb. 12) article feature image
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Eddie Keogh – The FA/The FA via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City standout Phil Foden chats with manager Pep Guardiola.

  • The best Premier League side faces one of the worst Saturday when Manchester City hits the road to face lowly Norwich City.
  • Manager Pep Guardiola and the Cityzens, who crushed the Canaries in a 5-0 out the last time they met, are massive -600 favorites.
  • Avery Zimmerman takes a deep dive into this confrontation and has found a value play tied to the game total.

Norwich vs. Man City Odds

Norwich Odds +1800
Man City Odds -650
Draw +700
Over/Under 3.5 (+110 / -155)
Day | Time Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
How To Watch NBC | Peacock Premium | fuboTV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

The Premier League leader travels to the home of a side currently in the relegation zone for a Saturday showdown.

Manchester City is nine points clear at the top of the Premier League, with just two losses on the season. Norwich City has risen from the bottom of the table to get to 18th, but the club still resides in the relegation zone.

When the two squads met earlier in the year, Norwich was thrashed at Etihad Stadium in a 5-0 blowout, but will anything change in the reverse fixture?

Let’s take a look at this lopsided matchup and see if we can find betting value.

Norwich Stringing Together Better Results

Earlier this season, Norwich City wasn’t able to find any form as it suffered defeat after defeat. In the new year, though, the Canaries have won four games across all competition and amassed seven of a possible 12 points in Premier League games.

During that period, Norwich has been generating results from positions that wouldn’t typically get them. In a 3-0 win against Watford, the team produced 0.38 less expected goals than its opponent. Then in a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace, Norwich generated nearly a full goal less of xG in that meeting.

Nevertheless, the table isn’t crafted based on xG and this stretch of play is going to go a long way in Norwich’s effort to avoid relegation. However, there’s still a long way to go and it currently sits in the drop zone as it stands.

Norwich has the most daunting two-game stretch you can find in the English top flight, with Man City at home and Liverpool away in a week’s span, but a point or more in the sequence would be simply massive, though a big shock.

Man City Approaching Key Period of Season

It’s no secret the one trophy manager Pep Guardiola and Manchester City really want is the Champions League hardware.

Despite dominating the English scene since his arrival, with three league titles and five domestic cups to show for it, Guardiola still hasn’t been able to get his hands on Europe’s most coveted trophy, despite entering the competition as one of the favorites each year.

The round of 16 begins on Tuesday for City, and with it comes a trip to Lisbon to face Sporting. Because of this, Guardiola could opt to adjust his lineup ahead of the fixture. It’s hard to know what that would mean, or if he even will take that approach in the first place, but it could impact the tie.

Of course, City would still come into this game as a massive favorite even without some of its best players. Kevin De Bruyne, Raheem Sterling and Phil Foden didn’t start for City in the reverse fixture and we saw how that went.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Despite the overwhelming favorite status that City has here, it’s hard to know how they’ll approach this game. The EPL is still in the balance, at least in Guardiola’s eyes, so it’s not as if this is a dead fixture.

However, the UCL is the focus for the Cityzens and risking any issues of fitness ahead of that game is something Guardiola won’t do. If any player is nursing any issue or injury, I anticipate they won’t play.

That being said, it’s hard to directly fade City and I don’t have the guts to do that. However, what I do have the guts to do is back this match staying under 3.5 goals.

Norwich produces the fewest xG in the league, while City concedes the fewest. And despite the prolific nature of City’s attack — and woeful nature of Norwich’s back line — the thought of the Champions League in just three days could play a role in the Cityzens’ minds.

I’m comfortable backing the under in this intriguing match.

Pick: Total Under 3.5 Goals (-120 or better)

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