Premier League Odds, Predictions, Picks | Best Bets for Newcastle vs West Ham, Bournemouth vs Everton
Rob Newell/Getty. Pictured: Jarrod Bowen.
Here's everything you need to know about Premier League predictions and odds for West Ham vs Newcastle, Bournemouth vs Everton, Aston Villa vs Wolves and Brentford vs Manchester United. BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.
Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.
If you'd like to see our projections for the Premier League matches and a number of other leagues, you can find them here.
Here are our weekend Premier League odds & predictions.
Premier League Odds & Predictions
| Newcastle Odds | -120 |
| West Ham Odds | +280 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -211 / +160 |
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Dabbundo: The market hasn't bought much into West Ham all season long, as the Hammers are consistently priced like a bottom six team in the league. Their underlying defensive metrics have been the main cause for alarm with West Ham, as the Magpies should create plenty of chances and more than two expected goals in my xG projections.
Newcastle's biggest issue this season is conceding high quality chances on the break. Since December, only Luton Town are allowing a higher expected goals per shot. They've conceded the second-most big scoring chances and rank 18th in xGA per match allowed as a result. They've been surprisingly poor defending set pieces — 19th in xGA per set piece allowed — and all of this is problematic against a West Ham attack that projects well on set pieces, has a ton of size and is quite good on the break attack wise. The defensive combination of Dan Burn, Fabian Schar and Jamaal Lescelles has been beaten in space far too regularly this year.
The current state of both clubs is that both are bottom six defenses in the Premier League. Only the three new promoted teams have conceded more xGA than West Ham, and Newcastle scored 14 goals in four matches played against the bottom three.
Fully healthy West Ham is an above average Premier League attack with a bottom five defense, and the market hasn't properly caught up to Newcastle totals for months now. My projections have 3.41 goals in this match and I'd bet over 3.5 at +120 or better.
Pick: Over 3.5 (+123 via BetRivers)
| Bournemouth Odds | +120 |
| Everton Odds | +220 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +110 |
Cunningham: The market has never been lower on Everton. The Toffees are winless in their last 10 Premier League matches and have a -13 goal differential in those matches. However, during that time frame, they only have a -2.2 expected goal differential. Take their last match against Manchester United for example, they gave up two penalties so the final xG tally of 2.7 is way higher than it should have been because Manchester United only took two shots from open play that had an xG rating over .10 and Everton outshot them 23 to 13.
These are the worst types of matchups for Bournemouth. The Cherries want to face an opponent that will build out of the back so they can unleash their hybrid press high up the pitch and force turnovers. Their team is not well suited to play a team like Everton who will only send long balls up the pitch evading their press. If you don’t believe me look what happened in Bournemouth’s previous match with Luton Town. The Hatters constantly were opening Bournemouth’s defense right up by getting 2 v 1 overloads in wide areas in the first half and it’s the reason they scored all three goals. For the season, Bournemouth are 10th at crosses allowed into their penalty area and in addition to that, the Cherries have the third-worst aerial dual win percentage in the Premier League.
I don’t really see a tactical scenario where Bournemouth have an advantage in this match. If they want to get in a back in forth transition battle, Everton are way better defensively or if Bournemouth decide to build out of the back and possess the ball at a high percentage, then Everton can sit in their mid-block where they have been elite this season allowing only 1.23 npxG per 90 minutes and have conceded the second-fewest big scoring chances.
I have this match projected right at a pick’em, so I like the value on Everton +0.5 at -130.
Pick:Everton +0.5 (-130 via BetRivers)
| Aston Villa Odds | -167 |
| Wolves Odds | +400 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +135 |
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Dabbundo: The market is giving a solid discount to Aston Villa right now and expecting them to come up well short of the impressive heights the Villans reached in the first half of the season. It’s true that the defense and midfield are a bit shorthanded right now and haven’t been as effective in the second half, but Villa’s underlying metrics are a clear half goal minimum better than Wolves this season.
Add in home field advantage and the Wolves attacking injuries and this number is too short on Villa at home. I don’t love laying favorites often, but Wolves are playing without Pedro Neto and Hwang Hee-Chan, their leading creator and goalscorer this season. This is the same defense that just conceded 3 xG to Coventry in the FA Cup quarterfinal and is reaching the top of the market themselves.
My numbers have Aston Villa projected at -173 and I’d bet them at -160 or better on Saturday.
Pick: Aston Villa ML (-160 via Caesars)
| Brentford Odds | +190 |
| Manchester United Odds | +125 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200 / +150 |
Cunningham: These are the types of matchups that are terrible for them as well. The reason being is Manchester United have been terrible is because their press is tactically flawed. What tends to happen is the fullbacks will not push high up the pitch to aid in the press, which often leaves a free man for an easy outlet pass and then there is acres of space for teams to run at them in transition. That is not the type of thing you want to do against Brentford because the Bees love to play in transition.
Brentford have gone through this really bad spell and it continued before the international break when they picked up a red card inside the first 10 minutes against Burnley. To highlight just how unlucky the Bees have been, they have lost 12 of their last 15 matches and have a -16 goal differential, but only a -8.3 expected goal differential. In addition to that, they have played Manchester City twice, Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool, Chelsea, Brighton and Wolves twice.
This is also about to be a much different Brentford team than the last one that faced Manchester United because not only is Ivan Toney available, but Bryan Mbuemo, who has missed the last 13 matches, is now available, which means for the first time Brentford will have their first choice front two strikers available. Mbuemo is so important to this Brentford team because of his pace and finishing ability in transition. So far this season he has a 0.79 xG + xA per 90 minute rate, which is the fifth-best mark in the Premier League.
Manchester United have also been terrible away from Old Trafford this season having a -6.9 xGD, while Brentford have a +1.7 xGD at home. Brentford even have a better expected goal differential overall for the season than Manchester United.
I have Brentford projected as a home favorite, so I love the value on the Bees +0.5 at -145.
Pick:Brentford +0.5(-145 via Caesars)
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