La Liga Betting Odds & Picks: Sevilla vs. Barcelona (Saturday, Feb. 27)
Alex Caparros/Getty Images. Pictured: Lionel Messi.
- (1) Barcelona looks to continue its hot stretch Saturday when it journeys to Sevilla for a La Liga showdown.
- Sevilla presents a difficult matchup for Barcelona, although Lionel Messi is tough for any team to defend.
- BJ Cunningham breaks down where he sees betting value in this contest below.
Sevilla vs. Barcelona Odds
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10:15 a.m. ET|
|Odds as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings.|
Sevilla and Barcelona meet in a top-four clash that could be a deciding factor in the La Liga title race.
Sevilla are on a fantastic run in La Liga, winning six straight matches and conceding only one goal in the process. In fact, they only have one loss since Dec. 5, and that came on the road at league-leading Atlético Madrid. Sevilla defeated Barcelona 2-0 a little over two weeks ago in Copa del Rey, giving them confidence heading into this fixture.
Barcelona, meanwhile, have rebounded from a terrible start in La Liga and are unbeaten in their last 14 league matches. They routed newly promoted side Elche on Wednesday for their eighth win in their last nine matches.
However, Barcelona haven’t faced another top-six side in La Liga since Dec. 16, which was 12 matches ago when they took on Real Sociedad.
Nobody is really talking about Sevilla right now, but they are only two points behind Barcelona and seven points behind Atlético Madrid in the title race. The reason they’ve been so good over the past three months is because of their defense. Since their loss to Real Madrid on Dec. 5, Sevilla has allowed only 0.88 xG per match. They’ve been an absolute fortress at home as well, as they have four clean sheets in their last five home matches in league play.
Tactically, Sevilla use a fantastic blend of pressing and defensive structure. Depending on their opponent they may press high up the field or sit back and take away key passing lanes in the middle. They’ve given Barcelona fits in the past because taking away the middle of the field is exactly how you beat Lionel Messi & Co. Barca haven’t been able to figure out Sevilla, as Sevilla are unbeaten in their last three meetings with Barcelona and has allowed them to score only one goal. So, I think Sevilla should be able to hang with Barcelona at home.
Barcelona’s dominant 14-match unbeaten run in La Liga may have to come with a bit of an asterisk because 10 of those 14 fixtures came against the bottom half of the table. However, their underlying metrics are really impressive, as Barcelona have registered up a +22.67 xGD, according to Understat, in those matches.
They’ve been scoring goals in bunches this season, averaging a league-leading and whopping 2.34 xG per match. Messi himself is having another dominant year and is currently the top goal scorer in La Liga with 18 goals already this season.
Barcelona’s problem this season though is they are struggling versus stiff competition. We all saw the beat down PSG put on them in the Champions League, but it’s also translated over to La Liga.
Against Atlético Madrid, Real Madrid, and Sevilla, Barcelona is 0-2-1 with a -1.28 xGD. Given all of the difficulties tactically that Sevilla has given them over the past two years, it’s hard to see how Barcelona is going to win this game outside of any heroics from Messi.
Betting Analysis & Picks
Even though Sevilla have given Barcelona fits over the past three meetings, Barca’s attack has been too good during their 14-match unbeaten run to just write off.
If Barcelona can score first I think we will see a very open game with a lot of scoring chances at both ends of the pitch. Therefore, I am going to back over 3 goals at DraftKings.
Pick: Total Over 3 Goals (+105)