Sevilla vs Roma Odds, Pick | Europa League Final Preview
DeFodi Images/Getty. Pictured: Jose Mourinho.
Sevilla vs Roma Odds
|Over/Under||1.5 (-178 / +144)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(+110 / -150)|
|Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Roma and Sevilla meet in the Europa League final with a spot in next year's Champions League on the line.
Sevilla have been mediocre in La Liga and are on their third manager of the season, but it doesn't matter. They took out Manchester United and Juventus on their way to the final and now have a chance to win an unprecedented seventh Europa League title. They will have to take down on of the most successful managers in history in order to do so.
Roma's top four hopes in Serie A were put to bed this weekend after a collapse against Fiorentina. However, their focus over the past few months has been solely on winning the Europa League. Jose Mourinho guided Roma to a Europa Conference League title last season over Feyenoord and has taken out Salzburg, Real Sociedad, Feyenoord again and Leverkusen on his way to the final in what would be yet again another impressive managerial display from the special one.
Let's get into my Europa League final preview.
Sevilla Face Mismatch Against Strong Side
Sevilla have changed but remained relatively the same under their third manager of the season, José Luis Mendilibar. In possession, Sevilla do a couple of different things. They first try to do the Roberto De Zerbi style of baiting teams into pressing them, but they are much more cautious in their approach.
They don’t try to build up from multiple passing combinations, but rather they like to use intermediate or long balls to evade the opponent's press, many times with Youssef En Neysri making runs off the opponent's back line.
When Sevilla do get the ball in the final third and when they’re trying to break down a low block, they like to try and create numerical overloads in wide areas of the pitch to then create space in the middle for their two holding midfielders to make runs into the box.
It’s worked against some of the lower half table teams in Spain, but I have a hard time seeing it work against the best low block in the world.
Out of possession, Sevilla like to play a high line and they like to press high. It’s one of the main reasons why they’ve been so bad defensively this season.
In La Liga this year, Sevilla have allowed 1.42 xG per 90 minutes and are conceding big scoring chances for fun. Even over their two legs with Juventus, they conceded 3.8 xG and Juventus only scored twice. Playing a high line against a Jose Mourinho team that is good in transitional opportunities is a recipe for disaster for Sevilla.
Roma Telling a Familiar Story
We all know the case with Jose Mourinho and Roma at this point in the season. They are the best defensive team in Serie A, allowing just 0.84 npxG per 90 minutes, and they are the best team in Europe at defending their penalty area.
Roma are a passive team, they don’t press high and they allow a high number of final third entries, but once teams enter their final third they are extremely difficult to break down. Roma are best in Europe in final third to box entry conversion rate at 19.74%. They’re also No. 1 in Italy in defending crosses into their penalty area, which is obviously massive against a team like Sevilla that likes to have the ball in wide areas and is a top-five crossing team in Spain.
They have been so good defensively that nobody in the Serie A top seven has created 1 one xG against them in a match, which is insanely impressive. The second leg against Bayer Leverkusen was a perfect example of how good this Roma low block is, as they conceded 23 shots and only one shot with an xG rating over 0.1.
Offensively, Roma ahve been good, but it's mostly come against the bottom half of the Serie A table. In matches against the top seven they’re averaging 0.98 xG per match. However, they aren’t playing one of the top defenses in Spain and given the fact that Sevilla play a high line, Roma should be licking their chops.
Sevilla vs Roma Pick
Sevilla being favored in this match is downright laughable.
We have an entire season of data that has concluded Sevilla are an average La Liga team, while Roma have a +1.06 xGD per 90 minutes in arguably a more difficult league this season. Sevilla's tactics may work against bottom half of the table Spanish sides and their pressing was successful against average build up teams in the Europa League – like a shorthanded Manchester United and Juventus – but Roma's direct transitional style of offense sets up perfect playing against Sevilla's high defensive line.
Roma have already played against two teams in this competition, winning the xG battle pretty comfortably in both meetings against Real Betis and against Real Sociedad in the quarterfinals. Both of those teams are significantly better than Sevilla, so it really doesn't make sense for Roma to be a straight pick'em here.
I have Roma projected at -173 to lift the trophy so there is plenty of value on the current line of -110.