Sunday La Liga Odds, Picks, Prediction for Valencia vs. Real Madrid: Los Blancos Undervalued On Road (Sept. 19)

Sunday La Liga Odds, Picks, Prediction for Valencia vs. Real Madrid: Los Blancos Undervalued On Road (Sept. 19) article feature image
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Berengui/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Karim Benzema.

  • Real Madrid hits the road Sunday to play Valencia in La Liga action.
  • The clubs are tied with 10 points on the table in the Spanish top flight, but the home side has benefitted from an easy schedule.
  • BJ Cunningham explains below why he's comfortable backing the more-talented visitors.

Valencia vs. Real Madrid Odds

Valencia Odds +280
Real Madrid Odds -110
Draw +285
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / +110)
Day | Time Sunday | 3 p.m. ET
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Real Madrid look to remain on top of the La Liga table when they travel to take on Valencia on Sunday.

Valencia are off to a flying start to their 2021-22 campaign, winning three of their first four matches, after finishing in the bottom half of the La Liga table last season. However, they’ve played an easy schedule up until this point, so this will be their first big test of the season.

Real Madrid are also off to a fantastic start, picking up 10 points in their first four matches. They are coming off a late 1-0 win in the Champions League on Wednesday at Inter Milan, so Los Blancos’ confidence is sky high right now. This will be their third match in seven days, so we could see Carlo Ancelotti rotate his squad on Sunday.

Valencia Have Preyed On The Weak

Valencia have also gotten off to a good start, but playing against Getafe, Granada, Alaves and Osasuna isn’t exactly what you would call a murderers’ row, and even last weekend they beat Osasuna 4-1, but only created 0.92 xG for the match. 

If we date back to last season, the club really struggled to find reliable strikers up top in its 4-4-2 formation, as Carlos Soler was its top goal scorer with 11 goals from the midfield position.

Also, Valencia allowed 1.47 xG per match last season. That was the fourth-highest mark in La Liga, which was quite pathetic considering how defensive that formation is in the first place. In fact, it allowed the most shot-creating actions of any team in Spain during the 2020-21 campaign.

Valencia were also completely overrated at home with a +11 actual goal differential, while they had a -3.21 xGDiff. 

Real Madrid Have Depth To Overcome Busy Week

Real Madrid have been solid through their first four matches, as they’re atop La Liga with 10 points and a +2.82 xGDiff.

I know they had a Champions League match Wednesday against Inter Milan, but Real Madrid have a ton of squad depth to rotate guys if they need to for this fixture. 

Real Madrid were one of the best teams on the road last season, going 12-6-1 with a +12.85 xGDiff. Needless to say, they should have no issues with a Valencia side that is going to sit back in a defensive 4-4-2 formation.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

I think this is a perfect sell-high spot on Valencia, who have overachieved to this point in the season. I have Real Madrid projected at -151, so I think there’s good value on Los Blancos at -110 on DraftKings and would play it up to -130 odds.

Pick: Real Madrid -110

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