Bundesliga Odds: Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Werder Bremen Betting Picks & Predictions (Wednesday, June 3)

Eintracht Frankfurt at Werder Bremen Odds

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Relegation is the story for the Bundesliga's lone midweek fixture. Werder Bremen, currently in 17th place and two points behind Fortuna Dusseldorf with a game in hand, will host Eintracht Frankfurt, who are just five points clear of trouble.

Werder Bremen

Don't look now but Werder Bremen are on a roll. Die Werderaner have not allowed a goal in their past three games, taking seven of nine possible points along the way.

Those results are deceiving, however, as Werder has a -0.38 goal differential in their recent hot run.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

If Die Werderaner want to continue climbing the table they will need to start getting results at home. It has been nine months since Werder Bremen won at Weser Stadium and, somehow, they've only managed to take six of a possible 39 points in home matches this season.

Werder Bremen typically lines up in a 4-3-3. If you have the right personnel the 4-3-3 can be an effective formation, unfortunately Die Werderaner do not have the right roster for this tactic, as evidenced by their -5.37 xG differential when they deploy the 4-3-3.

Another thing to note is that Werder Bremen really struggle when they're playing with a lead. Die Werderaner have been ahead for 608 minutes this season and during that span they have a -7.45 expected goal differential. Something to keep in mind if you're a live bettor.

Eintracht Frankfurt

Frankfurt are one of the most underrated teams in the Bundesliga. Currently sitting in 12th place, Die Adler's +4.27 expected goals differential suggests they should be in seventh place in the table.

One of the reasons that Die Adler have underachieved this season is that they have the worst road record in the Bundesliga this season. The good news is that Frankfurt is due for some positive regression, though, as their -16 goal differential on the road is significantly worse than their -4.8 xG differential.

At it's core, Frankfurt's 3-4-2-1 or 3-1-4-2 formation is defensive, but it can provide a lot of attacking options going forward by creating a lot of 5-on-4 situations.

Frankfurt has a +4.18 expected goal differential when they are in the 3-4-2-1 or 3-1-4-2 and an average of 3.42 expected goals are created when Die Adler line up in those formations.

Previous Meeting

The reverse fixture between these two sides back in October ended in a 2-2 draw at the Commerzbank Arena. Despite the draw Frankfurt dominated that  game out-shooting Werder Bremen, 25-11, and holding 62.4% of the possession. The expected goals report had Frankfurt up 2.84 to 1.92 in that encounter.

Analysis

I think Frankfurt is wildly undervalued in this game. I understand this match features two teams on a short week after playing on the road, so variance can run wild, but I cant ignore how bad Werder Bremen have been at home.

My model has the expected goals at:

• Werder Bremen: 1.20 xG
• Frankfurt: 1.77 xG

Based on those numbers, I think there is really good value backing Frankfurt on the Draw No Bet moneyline at -127.

The Bet: Frankfurt — Draw no Bet (-127)

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