Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng Odds, Pick, Prediction | Australian Open Final Preview

Sabalenka vs Zheng Odds

After a fortnight's worth of excellent tennis, we've reached the conclusion of the 2024 Australian Open. On the women's side of the draw, 2023 champion Aryna Sabalenka is back in the final to take on Qinwen Zheng, who will be competing in her first Grand Slam final.

Sabalenka defeated US Open champion Coco Gauff to avenge her final loss and reach the championship match in Melbourne, while Zheng ended the Cinderella run of Dayana Yastremska to earn a matchup with Sabalenka.

Read on to see how our experts are betting Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng in our Australian Open final preview.

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Sabalenka vs Zheng Picks

Under 20.5 Games (-115 via PointsBet)

David Gertler: Aryna Sabalenka defeated Coco Gauff 7-6(2), 6-4 in the semifinals. Sabalenka won 65% of her service points, although she was broken three times. The Belarusian also won 46% of her return points, breaking Gauff’s serve on four occasions.

Sabalenka has been hitting with elite controlled aggression for the entire tournament. She’s serving huge and overwhelming her opponents with pace from the ground while limiting her unforced errors.

Qinwen Zheng beat Dayana Yastremska 6-4, 6-4 to advance to the final. Zheng won 64% of her service points, only getting broken twice. In addition, the Chinese won 46% of her return points, breaking four times.

Zheng has easy power from the baseline and was better able to construct points to best utilize her power in her semifinal victory. Her first serve is a weapon and was also crucial to her semifinal win, as she won 76% of her first-serve points.

This is Zheng’s first Slam final, whereas Sabalenka, the defending champion, has more experience in this spot. Zheng is already the less-reliable player from the baseline, in terms of rally tolerance, and she should struggle with nerves in this one.

Sabalenka has played the best tennis of anyone all tournament. She’s dictating play, forcing all her opponents on the defensive. Zheng is less comfortable in defensive positions on the court and should struggle to impose her will on this match, as was the case when the Belarusian rolled in a 6-1, 6-4 victory at the US Open last season.

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Zheng +1.5 Sets (+128 via PointsBet)

Jon Reid: What a year it has been for Aryna Sabalenka, who is now into a third consecutive final in hard court Grand Slams.

After losing the US Open final to Coco Gauff – a loss she avenged in straight sets in the semis just a few days ago – from 6-2 up, Sabalenka will look to lift her second trophy down under at Melbourne Park and defend her 2023 crown.

I don't think anyone can dispute the fact that she should be the decisive favorite entering the final, but it's the degree to which she's favored that is up for discussion. For my money, she's the best quick-court player on the women's circuit and her serve, power and her added ability to play longer rallies without committing unforced errors in the last year or so is tough to beat. In fact, it's taken fellow top-tier players who can hit with her to do the job.

Thing is, Qinwen Zheng could be one of those players. She's got the serve and power from the baseline and her new status as a top 10 player certainly matches up with her talent. Sure, her first serve percentage struggles and she's still a bit error prone, but I'm not sure I'd have her pulling this off under 20% of the time.