Final Round Australian Open Qualifying Odds and Best Bets (Jan. 13)
Martin Keep/Getty. Pictured: Marco Trungelliti hits a backhand at the Bendigo Challenger.
With the penultimate day of the Australian Open’s qualifying draw here, the days until the main draw kicks off are coming closer and closer.
The main singles draw for both the men and the women was conducted yesterday, but our focus remains on the qualifiers for two more days.
There are 16 matches set to be conducted, and there are a couple worth betting in my opinion.
Read on for my betting analysis of today’s slate.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Gastao Elias (-135) vs. Timofey Skatov (+106)
6 p.m. ET
There are some times when a player is firing on all cylinders, and it’s a great sight to see. At the moment, that player is Skatov, who has found a new level since arriving in Melbourne for the qualifying draw.
This is tennis, so you never know when that form will run away and a player will lose confidence, but there’s no reason to assume that’s coming with Skatov at the moment. The Kazakh came into both of his matches with a gameplan, and he executed his strategy to an excellent level.
Skatov has been able to make a high percentage of first serves (85% and 78%), alleviating pressure from his service and allowing him to thrive from the ground, where he’s much more effective. There, Skatov hasn’t given his opponents room to breathe, and it’s resulted in a combined 65 winners hit against just 40 unforced errors. That’s a winning ratio.
Elias will serve as the most difficult opponent that Skatov has to get through, so it’s fitting he comes in the final qualifying round. The Portuguese player is as fit as they come, and it shows in his game. Elias has a willingness to grind out matches for hours, remaining patient and looking to get balls on his forehand side where he’s far more confident.
However you look at it, though, when you have the chance to get a player that is in this good of form at plus-money, you simply have to take it, and that’s why I’m betting Skatov.
Pick: Skatov +106 via PointsBet
Damir Dzumhur (-150) vs. Marco Trungelliti (+110)
7:15 p.m. ET
There’s something to be said for players that elevate their game when the stakes are highest. Trungelliti is 16-5 in slam qualifying draw matches since 2019, and it’s allowed him to compete in the main draw of 50% of the majors that he played.
That’s no easy task, and when you consider the lack of success that Trungelliti has seen outside of grand slam events, it’s somewhat mind-boggling.
Dzumhur wasn’t able to qualify for a grand slam main draw (outside of his lucky loser appearance in Australia last year) via the qualifying draw last year, and his consistent struggles to find form will be tested by the Argentine.
Matches against Australians Li Tu and Rinky Hijikata weren’t assured victories by any stretch, as both are competitive players that are used to the conditions in Melbourne, but Trungelliti is a far more established player.
There aren’t going to be many free points in this match, but Trungelliti is the more likely to get them when they do come. He won 72% of his first serve points on hard courts in 2021 with a 1.5 ace-to-double fault ratio, while Dzumhur had more doubles than aces and won 69% of his first serve points.
Too much is trending in Trungelliti’s favor for me to ignore, so this is another spot where a plus-money price has to be taken.
Pick: Trungelliti +110 via BetMGM
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