French Open Odds, Predictions, Picks: Our Best Bets For Davidovich Fokina-Griekspoor & Osorio-Tan (May 22)
Mondadori Portfolio/Getty. Pictured: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina hits a backhand at the Italian Open.
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The French Open has arrived!
After a long wait for tennis fans since the Australian Open, the second of four major tournaments is here, with 128 men and 128 women set to battle it out for glory in Paris.
The main draw starts earlier than normal, however, with the first round of the French Open getting underway on Sunday, as opposed to the usual Monday start.
Here are my best bets for the first round action at Roland Garros.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Camila Osorio (-260) vs. Harmony Tan (+200)
5 a.m. ET
First up on Court 14 are Camila Osorio and Harmony Tan in the first of a few clashes that are of intrigue on that court.
While some spectators may flock to the outer courts to start the day to support their countrywoman, it should be tough sledding for Tan.
Whether approaching this match from a stylistic, surface comfort or statistical angle, all signs point to Osorio being a little too much for the world No. 112.
From a matchup and stylistic standpoint, Osorio has all the tools to hang with Tan.
When Tan tries to dial it up, she often finds her game too erratic. The Colombian has the consistency to be able to wait out those errors.
If Tan is playing more consistent tennis, she offers very little in the way of creating winners; something one needs to do against Osorio.
Then there’s the athleticism of the up-and-coming young gun. Occasionally Tan will try and mix in some drop shots, though it’s not a strong point in her game.
That’s a tough strategy to employ against someone who is very athletic and moves around the court efficiently.
Statistically, it’s not much of a tight contest either. Osorio leads Tan by a mile in their current clay Elo Ratings. She has a much better record in this clay season despite playing as strong or stronger of a schedule, and whether it comes to season-long hold + break percentage or that same metric over the last 52 weeks on clay, she’s ahead of Tan by double digits.
Underdogs on clay are always more appealing due to the nature of the surface, but in this match don’t get too cute and trust the much better player in just about every facet of the game.
Pick: Osorio -4.5 games (+104 via PointsBet)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (-450) vs. Tallon Griekspoor (+350)
8:30 a.m. ET
If there’s a match to watch on the opening day from Paris, this may very well be it.
It features a best-of-five sets match – which only happens a few weeks a year, and the match also features twotalented, albeit mercurial players.
This has the potential to be a tense blockbuster of a match that features some great shotmaking.
From a betting perspective, the opposing form of these two entering the tournament has skewed the pricing and the markets a tad.
After dominating at the Challenger Tour level a year ago – particularly on clay – Tallon Griekspoor regressed to start the season when making the jump to being a full time ATP Tour-level professional.
His recent play, however, has shown some signs of resurgence. Back on the clay, Griekspoor qualified for Rome before losing in three sets as a heavy underdog to Sebastian Baez.
In Geneva, he upset Tommy Paul and took out Johan Nikles before bowing out in three sets to the big American Reilly Opelka at an event held at about 1,300 feet of altitude, a huge advantage for serve-focused players.
As for Davidovich Fokina, he burst onto the scene this year with an appearance in the final of Monte Carlo, beating Novak Djokovic along the way.
There is no doubting his effort, athleticism or shot-making abilities. Where questions do arise are in his low-margin style of play.
As impressive as the Monte Carlo run was, the Spaniard has lost as a favorite during this clay season on three occasions. Davidovich Fokina has gone over the minimum number of sets in several other matches.
While the trend isn’t the basis for the bet, it’s the explanation as to why he tends to play longer matches that has me believing there is value in the over 3.5 sets market.
Davidovich Fokina’s hot-and-cold style, along with Griekspoor’s own ability to find patches of superb play makes it tough to see this one ending in straight sets.
Furthermore, the over 3.5 sets at -125 provides much more value than the +2.5 sets market for Griekspoor, which comes in the -160 region. If Griekspoor wins this one in straights, good on him.
The better play, however, resides with the total.
Pick: Over 3.5 Sets (-125 at DraftKings)
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