Iga Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka US Open Odds, Picks: Sabalenka to Push World No. 1 (September 8)

Swiatek vs. Sabalenka Odds

The women's semifinals will take place on Thursday night on Arthur Ashe Stadium from the US Open, as we'll learn which two women will square off for the title.

Let's delve into the second match of the night, featuring world No. 1 Iga Swiatek and the big-hitting Aryna Sabalenka.

Swiatek Gunning For Best Non-Clay Result

It's been a bumpy road for the top player in the women's game, but she's matched her best-ever result at a hard-court Grand Slam event, reaching the semifinals.

She struggled with Germany's Jule Niemeier in the fourth round – having to recover from a set and break deficit – and Jessica Pegula in the quarters (the Pole led by a break in the second set on five different occasions, before winning in a tiebreak), but she got here in the end.

We know she's no fan of the lighter balls used during this US Open series summer swing, but her heavy, pacy forehand, along with her excellent return game have been enough to guide her through the draw.

In Thursday's semifinal, Swiatek is going to have to be much better on serve than she was in previous rounds. She'll also need to find a way to hit better spots with her second serve against an aggressive opponent, who surely knows that aggression and power are the keys to upsetting the top player in the women's game.

The key to victory for Swiatek in this one will be how effectively she's able to utilize her forehand. If she can hit from that wing with her typical spin and pace, actively seeking out inside-out forehands, she should find success.

Hitting that shot inside-out to Sabalenka's backhand wing would help in several ways. First and foremost, it would avoid the forehand, where Sabalenka has the power to rush Swiatek, dictate play and force errors.

Secondly, the backhand wing was the lone part of Sabalenka's game that was vulnerable against Pliskova. The Czech was able to coax plenty of unforced errors from her. Throw in the heavy spin from Swiatek? That wing will be even tougher to control.

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Sabalenka Rounding into Form in Timely Fashion

For Sabalenka, the game plan is simple. Maintain aggression, don't gift points with double faults on serve and rush her as often as possible with the forehand.

No need to be precise, just hit to bigger targets with pace. That has proven to be effective against Swiatek in the past in quicker conditions. Jelena Ostapenko, Danielle Collins, Madison Keys, Beatriz Haddad Maia and pre-retirement Ashleigh Barty all managed to do just that.

Factor in Sabalenka's form, and she's got the ability to keep this one close and pull off the upset. While many have talked (deservedly so) about the exploits of Caroline Garcia and Ons Jabeur recently, Sabalenka quietly made a final during the part of grass season she was permitted to play, reached the Cincinnati semifinals and now the US Open semifinals.

She'll feel confident in her chances.

Betting Value

Backing the Sabalenka moneyline in this one is a tempting proposition, but it's worth keeping in mind that one wants to avoid allowing recency bias to creep into the handicap.

Sabalenka's performance last round – on serve in particular – is not likely to happen. Nor is Swiatek being broken five times in a single set.

That said, the Belarusian has the player profile, as well as the form to push Swiatek, and backing this one to be closer than the price insinuates is still the best way to go about betting the match.

The over at 21.5 games instead of the anticipated 22.5 is a big difference, and I'm comfortable backing that side because of the live underdog status that Sabalenka possesses.

Pick: Over 21.5 games (-115 via PointsBet)

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