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Monday Wimbledon Odds & Best Bets: Red-Hot Van Uytvanck Too Strong for Raducanu (June 27)

Monday Wimbledon Odds & Best Bets: Red-Hot Van Uytvanck Too Strong for Raducanu (June 27) article feature image

Shaun Botterrill/Getty. Pictured: Emma Raducanu.

The women’s Wimbledon tournament is here and despite no ranking points being offered, players are ready to battle for the Venus Rosewater Dish.

Value has presented itself for two matches on Monday’s order of play.

Read on for my best bets and previews from the opening day at Wimbledon.

Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.

Elise Mertens (-550) vs. Camila Osorio (+380)

8 a.m. ET

Elise Mertens has had a disappointing grass-court season, going 1-3 so far and losing to Kirsten Flipkens most recently in Eastbourne.

Since coming back from an injury sustained in Istanbul, Mertens has been very passive in her baseline play. In terms of Mertens’ serve, she hasn’t won 45% of her second-serve points in any of her four matches on grass.

Mertens is 27-24 on grass in her career, having even made the round of 16 at Wimbledon in 2019.

However, the Mertens of today is not the same player she was in 2019. While the Belgian never had extraordinary power, she was able to effectively ramp up the pace at times. Nowadays, Mertens seems only comfortable hitting limp shots into big targets.

Camila Osorio has had a rough grass season, dropping to 0-3 on the surface after her 5-7, 6-7(2) Eastbourne loss to Lesia Tsurenko. Osorio’s second serve has been a major weakness, as she’s won a combined 30% of her second serves this grass-court season.

Surprisingly, given this year’s grass results, Osorio did qualify and make the third round of Wimbledon last season.  Osorio showed that her rally tolerance and movement on grass were good enough for her to grind past opposition, even on grass.

Despite this, the worry for Osorio is that she doesn’t hit a big ball, so power players can take advantage and crush her weaker groundstrokes.

The good news for Osorio is that Mertens is far from a power player at the moment. This will allow Osorio to hang in rallies and try to work the points, as if she’s on a slower surface. She also won’t give Mertens many of the unforced errors that she desperately needs.

Given the passiveness of her game, I don’t trust Mertens to effectively punish Osorio’s weak serve. Mertens will focus on getting the second serve back into play, instead of getting ahead in her return points.

Take the games.

Pick: Osorio +5.5 games (-134 via PointsBet)

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Alison Van Uytvanck (-165) vs. Emma Raducanu (+130)

10 a.m. ET

While Alison Van Uytvanck lost in the opening round of Bad Homburg to Amanda Anisimova,  she’s had a terrific grass-court season.

Van Uytvanck has gone 12-2 on grass this year with two titles, at the $100k event in Surbiton and the Gaiba Challenger.

She has also had success at the WTA Tour level, having come within a tiebreak of the semifinals in ‘s-Hertogenbosch, ultimately falling to Aryna Sabalenka.

Van Uytvanck is an impressive 48-30 on grass in her career. She has a strong first serve, powerful groundstrokes that cut through the court and a backhand slice that stays out of opponents’ strike zones. Van Uytvanck is also strong at the net and understands the right times during points to move in.

Emma Raducanu has played a smattering of games on grass this season, retiring against Viktorija Golubic in her Nottingham opener.

It was an abdominal ailment, one which held her out for the rest of the grass season. It’s certainly concerning that Raducanu skipped her practice with Garbine Muguruza on June 24th.

Raducanu’s grass experience is limited. She’s gone just 5-7 on grass as a professional. However, the Brit did make the round of 16 at Wimbledon last season. Raducanu has easy power and based on Wimbledon last year, she seemed to have a good rally tolerance on grass.

The US Open champion has massive injury concerns at the moment andeven if she’s healthy, she’s underprepared on the grass. Raducanu has only played seven games on grass this season, while Van Uytvanck has played 14 matches.

In addition, the Belgian has played 66 more grass matches total in her career than Raducanu.

Van Uytvanck will use her low backhand slice to neutralize Raducanu’s ball striking and will force the Brit to hit tough passing shots when Van Uytvanck approaches the net.

In addition, Van Uytvanck is very comfortable playing with controlled aggression on grass this season, while Raducanu will need some time adjusting to the surface

Pick: Van Uytvanck -2.5 games (-115 via PointsBet)

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