US Open Odds, Picks | Expert Predictions for Sinner vs. Hanfmann & Alcaraz vs. Koepfer (August 29)
Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Alcaraz.
The US Open continues on Tuesday with two night matches that feature two of the best players on the men's side.
Jannik Sinner takes on Yannick Hanfmann on Louis Armstrong while Carlos Alcaraz duels another German in Dominik Koepfer on Arthur Ashe.
Dive in below for the latest US Open odds and picks, including my expert predictions for both matches.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing US Open matches.
US Open Odds & Picks
Jannik Sinner (-4500) vs Yannick Hanfmann (+1400)
7 p.m. ET
I’m still reliving memories of Sinner’s epic five-set match with Alcaraz at last year’s US Open, but before the Italian can even think of a rematch, he’ll begin his New York journey with a matchup against Hanfmann.
This is a relatively easy breakdown in my opinion.
Sinner has been consistently strong this season, boasting a 41-12 record and two titles. He won the 1000-event in Toronto earlier this month and reached the semifinals of Wimbledon.
As one of the best ball strikers on tour, Sinner is going to create major issues for Hanfmann — who's not an experienced hard-court player — on this fast surface.
Hanfmann is just 3-12 in his career on the surface in ATP main-draw level matches and he has zero victories this summer during the US Open Series.
In fact, the German has no victories in ATP main draws on hard courts this year, and his only wins, in general, on the surface came in January in Australian Open qualifying and in a Challenger Tour event in Belgium.
This is bad spot for Hanfmann, who's won just a single match at the US Open in his career (2017 qualifier) and has only played in the main draw twice in New York.
Expect Sinner to cruise to victory and for the total to stay under this number.
Pick: Under 29.5 (-122 Via FanDuel)
Carlos Alcaraz (-7000) vs Dominik Koepfer (+2000)
8:15 p.m. ET
On paper, Alcaraz should absolutely maul Koepfer; he is a -7000 favorite and is on a different universe from the German in terms of talent.
But surprisingly, I’m going to back Koepfer in this spot in the form of the first-set spread (+2.5).
Koepfer isn’t known for his play on hard courts, but if you dig a little deeper, you’ll see that he’s performed solidly on the surface this summer. He posted a Round of 16 result in Winston-Salem, a semifinal appearance in Los Cabos (where he took Alex de Minaur to three sets) and a win against Daniel Evans in Atlanta.
Obviously, Alcaraz is a whole different beast than Constant Lestienne, James Duckworth, etc., but the Spaniard has been shaky in opening sets over the last three tournaments.
In his last 15 matches dating back to Wimbledon, Alcaraz has won the first set with a score of 6-3 or better just four times. He’s lost the first set in six of those matchups, including one to No. 70 Max Purcell.
The defending US Open champ has also never faced Koepfer, so it may take him a bit of time to feel out his opponent.
I hate to bet against Alcaraz and I’m certainly not questioning his form or chances of repeating at this event, but Koepfer should have a little gas in his tank to make this first set 4-6 or 5-7, thus covering the spread.
And the fact that we’re getting it at plus-money helps, too.