WTA Monterrey Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our 2 Best Bets, Including Madison Keys vs Petra Martic
Quinn Rooney/Getty Images. Pictured: Petra Martic.
The tennis was solid in Monterrey on Monday and the drama was through the roof, with players desperately battling to move on in the tournament.
While it will be tough to match Monday’s excitement, Tuesday’s order of play promises to bring more thrilling tennis for us to enjoy. However, there are also a couple matches on Tuesday where betting value has presented itself.
Check out below for analysis of two strong plays from Monterrey.
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Marie Bouzkova (-350) vs Sara Errani (+255)
2 p.m. ET, WTA Monterrey
Marie Bouzkova had a week to remember in Guadalajara. Bouzkova was solid from the baseline, but ended up losing in three sets to Sloane Stephens in the title match.
Bouzkova struggled a bit with her second serve during the contest, only winning 51% of her second-serve points. And in the third set, both Bouzkova’s first and second serves let her down. The Czech only won 47% of her first serves and 54% of her second serves, getting broken three times in the set.
However, one match doesn’t define an impressive tournament that saw her rip through tough players such as Sara Sorribes Tormo and Qiang Wang. Bouzkova’s consistent depth was top notch, and she did a better-than-usual job of stepping up in the court and being aggressive.
Sara Errani has made a surprise run into the main draw of Monterrey. Errani easily took down Lucia Bronzetti in a 6-3, 6-1 win in the final qualifying round to reach the main draw.
In that match, Errani shockingly won 71% of her first-serve points and wasn’t broken all match. For a player with as weak of a serve as Errani’s was, this goes to show how dominant her baseline game was. Errani also held Bronzetti to 53% of her service points won.
Beating Bronzetti, along with Caty McNally in the first qualifying round, shows Errani can still be dangerous from time to time. The Italian does such a great job of moving her opponents around the court and not giving away many free points. She also has some of the best variety to her game in the world.
This will be a baseline-centric match, with both players trying to outmaneuver the other and gain the upper hand in the rallies.
With that said, Bouzkova’s form in Guadalajara is more impressive to me than what Errani showed in Monterrey qualifying. Bouzkova’s controlled aggression last week was impressive because we always know that Bouzkova is going to be a pest from the baseline, but she plays her best when looking to attack.
Errani has had an nice career, but two wins against players outside the top 100 doesn’t change my mind she’s still been declining in the long term. Entering Monterrey, she was 0-3 and had lost seven matches in a row overall. However, it has really been years since Errani has been at the top of her game.
With movement so important to Errani’s style of play, the fact that she’s lost a half-step in that department really hurts her. And, she’s also just lost a bit of the depth and punch to her groundstrokes. Bouzkova should be able to take advantage of this and be the one dictating rallies more often.
Bouzkova has also had success in Monterrey in the past, having made the final in 2020, and coming a set away from the title, before falling just short in a three-set loss to Elina Svitolina. Given her run last week and in the 2020 Monterrey event, it’s clear that Bouzkova plays well with a bit of altitude.
When looking at Elo ratings, Bouzkova’s overall Elo is 167.4 points better than Errani’s, and her hard-court Elo is 174.7 points better that her foe.
Overall, 4.5 games do not feel like enough to be giving Bouzkova in this match and I look for her to cover this spread.
Pick: Bouzkova -4.5 Games (-130 via PointsBet)
Madison Keys (-600) vs Petra Martic (+370)
5 p.m. ET, WTA Monterrey
Madison Keys did so well to reach the Australian Open semifinal round, but in her first match since Melbourne in Mexico last week, she fell in the first round to Harmony Tan.
It was a rough day at the office for Keys in the 4-6, 6-1, 1-6 loss to the Frenchwoman. Keys, normally a strong server, won only 64% of the points on her first serve and 48% of her second-serve points. She was also broken four times, serving just two aces compared to five double faults.
Keys had a difficult time reining in her groundstrokes in the altitude of Guadalajara, overhitting at times. Keys had done such a great job of playing with controlled aggression in Australia, so it was disappointing to see her regress a bit against Tan.
Petra Martic lost her first two matches of the season (and four matches overall), however, she started to play better in her first tournament since the Australian Open in St. Petersburg.
After beating Kamilla Rakhimova in the first round of the indoor-hard tournament, Martic played a tough match against Elise Mertens in the second round, but ultimately lost in three sets.
Martic did a good job on return in both of those matches, generating a combined 22 break points. In her addition, her heavy forehand controlled the court decently well and she played with good precision, hitting her spots around the court.
While Rakhimova is not the toughest opponent, hanging tough against a player of Mertens’ caliber showed that Martic’s game hasn’t completely went away and is starting to come back.
This match will be on Keys’ racquet. While there isn’t nearly as much altitude in Monterrey as there is in Guadalajara, the balls still fly a bit, which is concerning given how Keys played against Tan last week.
Now, whether or not that was a blip for Keys and she will be back to her level in Australia remains to be seen, but giving 5.5 games in tough conditions against a competent player in Martic after what happened last week would be worrisome to me.
Martic is a deserved underdog, but her forehand is heavy, she has a high tennis IQ, and she can hit into small windows well. Her backhand isn’t great, but it’s solid and Martic has a good understanding of when to come into the net.
Given Keys’ opponent and her match in Guadalajara and I think that Martic’s game spread is the play.
Pick: Martic +5.5 Games (-128 via FanDuel)
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