Updated 2022 Waste Management Open Odds & 7 Picks for Max Homa, Justin Thomas, More
Getty Images. Pictured: Max Homa (left) and Justin Thomas.
Click here for full Waste Management Open odds from BetMGM
|Harold Varner III||+5000|
|Si Woo Kim||+8000|
|Charles Howell III||+10000|
Looking for the perfect betting opener for the Super Bowl? Look no further than the 2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open.
One of the best non-major fields of the golf season has gathered in Scottsdale this week for golf’s biggest party, which has seen some fireworks in past years. Last year, Brooks Koepka holed a chip for eagle on the 71st hole for a win. With a full-capacity crowd back at TPC Scottsdale, it’s a can’t-miss event.
Jon Rahm, as he will in any event he plays nowadays, is the betting favorite, although there’s plenty of top talent behind him. Six of the top-10 players in the world and 14 of the top 20 are in this field.
Our GolfBet staff has you covered this week, from a favorite to a couple longshots, then a couple props and a matchup. Check out their best bets, then sit back and relax what will no doubt be an electric week of golf.
2022 Waste Management Open Best Bets
*Odds below as of Tuesday night at 9 p.m. ET.
Keith Mitchell +8000
Jason Sobel: Well, I’ve been bullish on Mitchell for a while now, writing him up in my annual “The Leap” column and in each preview during the weeks he’s played so far this year — and he hasn’t disappointed, finishing 7th-MC-12th, the last of which at Pebble Beach this past weekend.
There’s even more reason to like him at this one. The first is analytical. Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee is an important metric at TPC Scottsdale. Unlike some events we’ve seen recently, in which a player’s advantage off the tee doesn’t offer a significant edge, this one sets up well for those who hit it long and (mostly) straight.
That is decidedly Mitchell’s game, as he ranked 11th off-the-tee last season and is seventh this season. The fact that he fared well at places like Waialae and Pebble Beach, where SGOTT wasn’t as important, should only mean bigger things are on the horizon at a venue like this one.
The other reason I’m picking him here is intangible. In recent years, we’ve seen Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler and Gary Woodland win this title. I think it often takes a little swagger, a little desire to show off, in order to succeed in front of the biggest crowds of the year.
Granted, that’s not a foolproof idea since Webb Simpson and Hideki Matsuyama don’t exactly fit the profile. Mitchell does, though, and one week after playing well while partnered with Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen at Pebble Beach, I believe he’ll be prepared to evoke some of that swagger once again.
With 18 of the world’s top-30 players in the field, there are plenty of safer names at shorter prices, and while the days might be over when we could get him at 250-1 as he was last year, I’m taking a shot here on a hot hand who should fit the course and event well.
Max Homa +7500
Chris Murphy: The Waste Management Phoenix Open is a tournament typically won by the top of the odds board, as it’s been since 2013 that the champion of this event was beyond +5000 at the start of the week. I am going beyond that with my best bet, but Max Homa is a player that when his game is right certainly stacks up with golf’s elite.
Homa has shown an ability to not only compete but win in elite fields, as he proved last year at the Genesis Invitational. He has added another West Coast win to his resume since that time and really is a great fit to the course at TPC Scottsdale, where his elite iron play can shine.
The Cal grad has played this event three times, with his best finish coming in 2020 when he finished sixth. That was actually his worst iron week of his appearances at the Waste Management. Homa has never gained less than 1.8 strokes on approach at this tournament and clearly has an eye for the course, as well as desert golf.
I was ecstatic to see such a long number on the three-time TOUR winner when odds were released on Monday, and I continue to like the value and upside at +7000 as the tournament approaches.
Justin Thomas +1200
Matt Vincenzi: With 14 career wins at only 28 years old, there is no one on TOUR who offers more win equity than Justin Thomas. With his last win coming almost 11 months ago (March 2021), Thomas is past due for another TOUR victory.
Not only is “JT” due for a ceiling week, but TPC Scottsdale is the ideal spot on the schedule for it to happen. There are a few trends that point to Thomas as an eventual winner in Phoenix: Nine of the past 10 winners at TPC Scottsdale have either a PLAYERS victory or a major championship. Thomas has both.
Additionally, 10 of the past 11 winners of the event have had a top-seven finish or better in one of their last five starts in Scottsdale. With finishes of 17th, third, third and 13th in his past four starts, Thomas certainly fits the bill.
Despite the lack of wins in the past calendar year, Thomas has sneakily been playing some very good golf lately. With five top-20 finishes in his past five starts including three top-threes, he has shown he has been slowly trending towards a victory.
TPC Scottsdale is famous for its electric atmosphere and energetic group of fans. As we saw at Whistling Straits for the Ryder Cup, the fans have seemed to be a motivation for Thomas and I expect him to be fired up in Phoenix.
Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, Adam Scott and Billy Horschel all to make the cut (+290)
Rob Bolton: It’s like FanDuel was trying to woo me or something. Well, it’s worked! “How you doin’?”
FanDuel recently released a big, er, massive board of parlays. This one, found under “Tourney Specials” in “Golf Specials 2,” presents the shortest odds of 68(!) choices.
Now, I wouldn’t venture as far as to say that there’s value for all, but there’s something for everyone. With 68, there has to be. Let’s have a little fun so that you can try one on for size.
I’ve bumped the odds to the bottom of my capsule here so that you’re not influenced. So, before you scroll, consider what kickback is the minimum for you to belly up to this:
- Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele all finish inside the top 10.
While you’re contemplating, here’s a simple breakdown of why the parlay I’ve chosen actually carries value even though it requires going 5-for-5, and remember that one short of half the field at the WM Phoenix Open (65 of 132) is guaranteed to cash.
- Considering only tournaments with cuts, this group has survived a combined 31 in a row with each golfer cashing in at least five straight.
- Schauffele is perfect in four trips to TPC Scottsdale.
- Scheffler finished T7 here last year.
- Horschel is 7-for-7 in the tournament since 2015.
The wild-card factor is that both Fitzpatrick and Scott are first-timers, but even if the parlay was just those two at, say, +100, neither is representing a reason not to have a nibble.
Spoiler alert now…
At last check, the line for JT, Hovland and Schauffele all to finish inside the top 10 is +2700. (You’ll find it in “Golf Specials 3.”)
Harris English — Top 20 (+380)
Landon Silinsky: It wasn’t so long ago English was absolutely tearing up the PGA TOUR. Last summer, he won the Travelers on the heels of a T-3 at the U.S Open, and then followed that up with a T-4 at the St. Jude. He posted some decent finishes in the Fed-Ex Cup Playoffs and even made the TOUR Championship. After that things sort of fell apart.
We haven’t seen English since the Sony Open over a month ago, where he made the cut and tied for 55th. Despite his recent subpar ball-striking, his putter has remained elite as he ranks third in this field in SG: Putting over his past four rounds and 14th over his past 48 rounds. Additionally he sits 19th in total strokes gained over his past 48 as well.
This number on him to top 20 on FanDuel is a clear error as DraftKings is only offering +240. You cannot tell me Bubba Watson is almost TWICE as likely to top 20 than English is, because that is basically what FD is telling us with Watson’s T-20 number sitting at +200. Maybe the month off has helped English find his game a bit. He’s also posted four top-20 finishes at this event since 2012. I will take my chances at this number.
Pat Perez (-115) over Branden Grace
Bryan Berryman: Grace has lost strokes tee-to-green in seven of his last eight tracked events. His best finish in that category was 33rd at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, which was a 38-player event.
Perez, meanwhile, is hot. He is coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes (sixth at the Farmers and ninth at Pebble Beach). In his last 24 rounds, Perez ranked 19th in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach, while Grace is 100th.
Grace is likely getting a bump from books here because he has made two starts at the Waste Management and finished second and ninth. I need more than course history alone to buy into a player, though, especially given that small sample size.
Looking at the recent Strokes Gained numbers, this is a tale of two players trending in opposite directions. I’m riding the hot hand this week over at PointsBet.
Russell Henley +4100
Joshua Perry: Henley should fit better here than he’s shown. It might be the environment isn’t up to his liking, but he keeps coming every year. The form is great with a second at the Sony and 14th at the AmEx. The ball-striking has been in good shape for months now, so whenever he’s putted well he’s put up good results.
Again, the history isn’t ideal, but he’s been inside the top 20 twice at Scottsdale, so he’s capable of playing well here.