Dinger Tuesday FanDuel Props, Featuring Oneil Cruz, Jordan Walker, More on April 4
Joe Puetz/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Walker
One of the most popular promotions in all of the sports betting community makes its long-awaited return on Tuesday. FanDuel has brought back Dinger Tuesday for the entire 14-game slate of MLB and will do so each Tuesday through at least the end of August.
The popular promotion allows each user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether or not the player you bet on homered, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.
Some users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $50 back in free bets — essentially 10 free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were no limits on the promotion for any players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2022 was 2.14, you will receive an average of $10.07 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run yes prop.
If you're not limited at all, you should play as many games as you're comfortable with because the promo is still +EV for most of the board.
If you are limited to the max return of $50, an average of five games will return your $50 maximum free bets. Note: It could be fewer than five games to reach the $50 ceiling if home runs increase again in 2023.
Because the promo is more limited for the majority of players, I'll post my favorite five or six picks each week. I'll be centering around the games with the highest totals and the friendliest daily park factors.
It's crucial that you opt-in to the promo before betting any home run props on Tuesday.
Here are my five favorite Dinger Tuesday picks on Tuesday.
Cubs at Reds, 6:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Jason Vosler (+470)
Maybe no hitter in all of baseball had a bigger offseason park upgrade than former Giant, Jason Vosler. Now with the Reds, Vosler is benefitting from Great American Ball Park. He's already barreled two balls in his first six batted ball events and is the best option in a game that doesn't have a lot of power in either lineup. Those two barrels both ended up as homers.
Vosler only had five career barrels in his first 123 batted ball events entering the season, so it's not just a small sample that Vosler hit two in a week. It could be a signal that Vosler is in for a better season this year, given that barrel rate stabilizes after just 50 batted ball events
Because this total is one of the higher ones on the board, I want to include Cubs-Reds among my bets since I'm limited in the promo.
Phillies at Yankees, 7:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Jake Cave (+800)
Jake Cave had an excellent spring training in Philadelphia and is expected to start against the right-hander Domingo German on Tuesday. Cave has always had the raw power, but strikeouts and bat-to-ball skills have hurt him and cost him an ability to play every day in the big leagues.
Cave has already barreled three balls in his four batted ball events in the first two games of the season. His price at FanDuel is +800, which is much better than at other sports books, where he is +750 at Caesars, +625 at BetMGM and +700 at DraftKings.
The weather isn't too favorable for hitting in Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, but these are two of the best power lineups in all of baseball and a short porch in right field that should help Cave.
I wanted to take Alec Bohm (+680) here, but his number is much better at other sportsbooks and thus I'll be betting him elsewhere and not using him in the promo. Bohm's opposite field homer ability and improvements at the plate in the young season are noticeable.
Pirates vs. Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Oneil Cruz (+500)
Oneil Cruz is one of the most exciting young players in baseball because of his raw power and speed combination and dynamic athleticism. He had a 15.5% barrel rate in 2022, which put him in the 96th percentile across baseball. For reference, that ranked 13th in all of baseball amongst hitters with at least 200 plate appearances.
His barrel rate was comparable with Austin Riley, Teoscar Hernandez and Joe Pederson — three sluggers who consistently hit 25+ home runs per season. Cruz has that level of elite HR upside and gets a friendly matchup with Nick Pivetta in an excellent park for offense.
Cruz has 30 home run per year upside and I like to try to target these types of hitters on Dinger Tuesday before the market consistently prices him as an elite slugger.
The FanGraphs chart shows how much Cruz improved in his rookie season once he had a better understanding of the strike zone. As his chase rate dropped (O-Swing%), his wOBA took a huge leap forward and helped him better tap into his power.
I'm higher on Roansy Contreras than I am on Pivetta, who has always had home run issues as long as he's been an MLB pitcher. I'd play Cruz down to +430. You can find better prices at other books besides FanDuel if you want to bet elsewhere too.
Blue Jays vs. Royals, 7:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Vinnie Pasquantino (+800)
There are two options that immediately stuck out to me on the board's current prices. Vinnie Pasquantino is at a huge discount because he's facing a lefty starter in Yusei Kikuchi, but Pasquantino hasn't had any issues hitting left-handed pitching in his short MLB career. In fact, the 'Italian Nightmare' had more props/walks">walks (10) than strikeouts (6) against southpaws in his rookie 2022 MLB campaign.
Pasquantino hasn't found much power yet in 2023, but the average exit velocity is the same as last year and he's retained elite plate skills with few strikeouts and plenty of walks. There's questions about how much true power there is in the profile, but Pasquantino gets a lefty in Kikuchi who has had major home run problems his entire MLB career.
He allowed a 14.8% barrel rate in 2022, which put him in the bottom one percent of the entire league.
The other name was Matt Chapman, who slugs lefties extremely well at +430. Pasquantino at +830 is the one I went with, but if you're more risk averse, Chapman is a good option at +430 too. I'd play Pasquantino to +775 and Chapman to +400.
Braves vs. Cardinals, 7:45 p.m. ET
Pick: Jordan Walker (+750)
Walker is another bet on raw tools and when you compare his number across various books, he's the clear choice in a game that should feature plenty of offense and slugging.
The Cardinals are elite against left-handed pitching — No. 1 in wRC+ last season. Now they add another power right-handed bat in Jordan Walker to the lineup. He's the Cardinals top prospect and you wouldn't believe he's only 20 if you looked at his size and swing. Walker displayed elite raw power and won't be priced this low on the board against a left-handed pitcher for long.
Walker is +750 at FanDuel as of 12 p.m. ET. Barstool has him at +600, BetRivers +600, DraftKings +550, Caesars +525, and BetMGM +475
Dylan Dodd is making his major league debut on Tuesday for Atlanta. His Stuff+ graded out at almost exactly league average during spring training and thus he won't be able to overpower Walker with his stuff. The combined power of both lineups makes for a lot of good choices in this game that should have plenty of homers — Walker is just the best value on the board.
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