We have a shorter slate today, as we do on most Thursdays, headlined by Rangers vs Rays at 12:10 PM ET, Nationals vs Braves at 7:15 PM ET, and Mariners vs Dodgers at 10:10 PM ET.
Check out our 4 MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:10 PM | |
  | 2:10 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 10:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tanner McGrath's Rangers vs Rays Best Bet
Action PRO projects Rangers LF Alejandro Osuna for 0.47 singles in today's matchup against the Rays, giving us a 6.2% edge against the market when compared to his current prop line of over/under 0.5, which is good enough to mark the under with a C+ grade in our system.
He has only one hit in his past four games, and that was a double against the Mariners on Saturday.
Osuna has just two hits in his last 13 at-bats, with just one single.
Today, he will face a very effective starter, Shane McClanahan, who's allowing a .211 average and a .259 BABIP.
On top of that, Osuna's stats are worse on day games, as he averages .220 compared to .268 in night contests.
Let's fade him on his singles line against Tampa Bay.
Pick: Alejandro Osuna Under 0.5 Singles (-140 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Yankees vs White Sox Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
Yankees starter Ryan Weathers is an erratic pitcher, but with a 20.2 K-BB%, it often comes down to what happens when batters are making contact.
For a while, that was too many home runs and barrels, but he’s only allowed a single home run and four barrels over his last six starts, and still has a 4.61 ERA and 5.13 xERA over that span because of his 44.2 HardHit%. However, the xFIP is just 2.75.
Importantly, the gap between right-handed home run factor between Yankee Stadium and Guaranteed Rate Field is 30 points. This park may be better equipped to handle the damage Weathers incurs.
The White Sox are a dangerous bunch at home (projected lineup average 110 wRC+ through Tuesday) and against LHP (111), but those same nine also have just an 86 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
It’s also a very top-heavy lineup too, with five of the nine above a 135 wRC+ against LHP, but three of the remaining four below 70.
With great timing, Fangraphs had a Wednesday article identifying Sean Burke as a velocity riser, up nearly 2 mph since April, although they were also able to break his last six starts down into those where he sat at 96 mph (great) and the two where he did not (not so good).
The article did not include his last start, where Burke sat 95.1 mph and struck out 10 of 24 Astros with a 16.7 SwStr%.
Going back nine starts now, Burke has a 24.4 K-BB% with just a 32 HardHit%. He’s dominated to the tune of a 2.48 ERA, 2.81 xERA and 3.17 xFIP during this stretch.
Down now both Judge and Bellinger, the projected Yankee lineup (I’ve swapped Wells for Sanchez in BARTOLO’s projections for the day game after night game) averages just a 98 wRC+ on the road, 88 vs RHP and 79 over the last 30 days.
The deeper you look, the worse it gets. Ben Rice (165) is the only one of the nine to reach a 100 wRC+ over the last month, and he’s also the only one above 110 against RHP this year (174), with six of the remaining eight not exceeding 90.
The Yankee defense is about as neutral as it gets, with the projected defense accumulating -1 FRV in contrast to the 6 FRV for Chicago’s projected starters.
Both bullpens have at least top half of the league estimators over the last month, with the White Sox top third of the league (3.59 FIP, 3.84 xFIP, 3.58 SIERA), averaging almost exactly one-third of a run better than the Yankees. BARTOLO projects both bullpens to be middle of the league.
Guaranteed Rate Field suppresses run scoring by 4% on average, while a preliminary weather forecast gives 2-3% of that back, and scheduled umpire Andy McKay is almost perfectly neutral.
I’m giving the White Sox very small edges in almost every aspect of this game, including a projected lineup 3 BRR (Base Running Runs) edge.
Add in another small edge for playing at home, and I believe they’re getting just a bit slighted here (-112) in what I expect to be a low-scoring contest.
I might be on the under for a full unit if a long extra-inning game on Wednesday night wasn't hindering both bullpens.
Pick: White Sox ML (-115 or Better) | Under 8 (-115 or Better)
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Kev Mahserejian's Nationals vs Braves Best Bet
Jake Irvin is making his first start for the Nats since May 23. He had multiple promising outings in his first 11 starts, but still posted a 5.23 ERA.
Irvin's 15.8% K-BB this season is his career-best, and he did post an excellent 12 K to 1 BB through his three minor league rehab starts (11 1/2 IP), with no runs allowed. However, he did not face more than 15 batters in any of the three outings.
Unless Irvin knocks down the Braves lineup early with a low pitch count, he will not pitch more than five innings today, leaving significant work for the Nationals' low-end bullpen.
Both offenses in this matchup are top-five in the past two weeks. Washington ranks first (149 wRC+), while the Braves rank fifth (121 wRC+). The Nationals' offense is weaker after dealing breakout 3B to the Red Sox earlier this week, but still strong overall.
Also, both offenses rank among the best 10 all season against RHP. Atlanta has the bonus of Acuna Jr. returning to the lineup as well.
Braves starter Grant Holmes may seem steady with his 3.79 ERA, but this is backed by a 4.70 xERA, 4.64 xFIP, and 4.71 SIERA. He has pitched better in his past five starts (2.63 ERA, 4.08 xERA, 4.53 xFIP), but with luck still on his side.
Furthermore, the Braves are coming off a doubleheader against the Mets, with every reliever being utilized throughout the day. Ideally, this works to an advantage for today's play.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-120 or Better)
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Frank Ammirante's Mariners vs Dodgers Best Bet
I'm taking the Dodgers to go over 4.5 runs tonight.
Bryan Woo has struggled on the road, putting up a 6.52 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 58 innings. In his last six road starts, Woo has allowed 29 earned runs in 30 innings, which works out to an absurd 8.70 ERA. I don't think a road start against one of the best teams in MLB is going to be where Woo gets back on track away from home.
It's also worth noting that Bryce Miller was initially scheduled to start this game, so Woo was pushed up. There's a chance that this disruption in routine can affect him here.
Woo's earned runs prop is set at 2.5, juiced to the over at nearly -150. He's projected to allow 3+ runs in this outing, so I'll take my chances that the Dodgers can get to five or more in this spot.
Pick: Dodgers TT Over 4.5 (-115 or Better)
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