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Monday MLB Odds, Expert Picks: Our Staff’s Best Bets From Astros vs Rays and Diamondbacks vs Dodgers (September 19)

Monday MLB Odds, Expert Picks: Our Staff’s Best Bets From Astros vs Rays and Diamondbacks vs Dodgers (September 19) article feature image
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Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Muncy, Justin Turner and Freddie Freeman.

  • Just because it's a light MLB slate doesn't mean there isn't value to be found.
  • Astros-Rays and Diamondbacks-Dodgers have caught the eyes of our MLB analysts tonight.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of our best bets from tonight in Major League Baseball.

The MLB season continues to wind down, and a new week gets going with nine matchups on Monday, including a few key games with postseason implications.

Our analyst are on two of those games, including a potential postseason preview in Astros vs. Rays, and an NL West meeting between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers.

Here are our two best bets from Monday’s Major League Baseball slate.

MLB Odds & Picks

Click on a game to skip ahead
Astros vs. Rays
6:40 p.m. ET
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
10:10 p.m. ET

Astros vs. Rays

Pick
Rays Team Total Over 3.5 (+108)
Book
BetRivers
Pitchers
Luis Garcia vs. Drew Rasmussen
First Pitch
6:40 p.m. ET

DJ James: The Tampa Bay Rays face the Houston Astros in a potential foreshadowing of the American League playoffs. Luis García will go for the Astros against Drew Rasmussen of the Rays.

Tampa Bay has a 108 wRC+ off of right-handed pitchers in the last month. This is the 10th best in the MLB. They are also striking out less than 20% of the time in that time period.

García has had a rough go of it lately. Even with a strong outing in his last two appearances, he owns a 4.70 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in the second half. Sure, he is getting unlucky with a 4.04 overall ERA against a 3.52 xERA, but the Rays have hit righties well enough that this may turn out to be another poor outing for García.

Yandy Díaz and Jonathan Aranda both have .350+ xwOBAs in the last month. Much of the rest of the lineup owns an xwOBA over .300, so this at least means they can put up solid plate appearances.

Díaz and Ji-Man Choi have .400+ xwOBAs, and Harold Ramírez and Isaac Paredes are above .360 in the last week.

They have the artillery to put up a challenge for the struggling García. Take the Rays team total over 3.5 (+108) to 4 (-130).


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Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers

Pick
Dodgers -1.5 (-115)
Book
DraftKings
Pitchers
Merrill Kelly vs. Clayton Kershaw
First Pitch
10:10 p.m. ET

Jules Posner: Merrill Kelly is a great story and a good pitcher, but the Dodgers have been his kryptonite. This season, Kelly has been knocked around for an 8.50 ERA with a 6.05 FIP and 4.73 xFIP against the Dodgers.

The Dodgers’ offense has also been rolling at home this season, but over the past two weeks, they’ve posted a 130 wRC+ against RHP at home. Even if they rest some of their starters, they are simply too deep.

Clayton Kershaw takes the mound for the Dodgers and he’s been solid this season as well. Kershaw has posted a 2.85 ERA, 2.37 FIP and 2.38 xFIP at home. Surprisingly he’s underperformed his home peripherals this season.

Additionally, the Diamondbacks have struggled against LHP on the road over the past month. They have a relatively left-handed lineup and their right-handed platoon options are just not very effective.

Also, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen has had its peaks and valleys this season. They are presently in a crater.

The Dodgers’ have a huge edge in this matchup and since Kelly is getting overvalued, the Dodgers’ run line opened around -115 and remained there overnight. The Dodgers’ run line should be the play to -130.

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