A pair of hitters I will be looking to back tonight are Josh Bell and Luis Arraez. However, we will begin in the nation's capital, where CJ Abrams is currently slumping.
My MLB player prop picks today for Monday, August 31, are below.
MLB Player Props Today
- CJ Abrams Under 1.5 Total Bases (57c, Kalshi)
- Josh Bell Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (49c, Kalshi)
- Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Total Bases
Marlins vs Nationals Prop
This season, CJ Abrams has enjoyed a career year, leading to his second trip to the All-Star game. He has already set career-highs in OPS (.849), home runs (29), and RBI (92), in which he ranks 5th in the MLB. Despite his All-Star campaign, he has begun to slow down a bit in the second half.
In August, he is 17-for-98 (.173) with seven extra-base hits and a .519 OPS. He has yet to record a hit in the first three games of this series and he is mired in a 2-for-28 slump over the last week. Numerous factors have led to his decline as he had his name involved in trade rumors at the deadline, made a position switch defensively, and dealt with an ankle injury.
If he is still dealing with the ill effects of his injury, it has shown up at the plate. He missed four games before returning to the lineup against the Rockies. He has a hit in just two of his last six games, and he has not recorded two total bases in his last five games.
In the series finale tonight, the Marlins will send Ryan Gusto to the mound and he is 1-for-3 with a single against him in four plate appearances. Under normal circumstances, this is a matchup where I would favor Abrams, but he has had several good matchups over the last week and not taken advantage of them. If his only hit tonight is a single, he will go under his total bases line once again.
Pick: CJ Abrams Under 1.5 Total Bases
Tigers vs Twins Prop
In addition to their pending free agency, the Tigers felt comfortable trading Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize away because of the return of former top prospect Jackson Jobe among others. Jobe has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his four starts. However, a rough outing against the White Sox has blown his ERA up to 3.93 and his metrics have been less favorable.
Jobe has a 1.42 WHIP and 5.67 expected ERA. He has just an 18.8% strikeout rate and 18.7% whiff rate while surrendering a 40.7% hard-hit percentage and 9.4% barrel rate. While the sample size is small given that he has thrown just 18 innings thus far, Bell is one Twins' hitter that can take advantage tonight.
Jobe has allowed both of his home runs to left-handed hitters as well as seven of the eight runs he has given up. The switch-hitting Bell enters tonight's game on a five-game hitting streak. He has recorded an RBI in three of those games and he is up to 83 on the year. That has helped him record two hits, runs, and runs batted in four times in his last five games.
Bell has also had a lot of success against the Tigers this season. In six of the seven meetings this season, he has reached base while hitting .407 with two home runs, five RBI, and a 1.115 OPS. He has cleared this line in five of seven meetings against them and whether it is against Jobe or an inconsistent Tigers bullpen, I like him to get there again.
Pick: Josh Bell Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prop
One of the best contact hitters in baseball, Arraez is one of the best bets to at least get a hit. Surprisingly, he has not done so in three of his last four games, but I do not expect that to continue much longer. Having spent the last couple years in the NL West with the Padres and Giants, Arraez has seen a lot of Brandon Pfaadt and he has dominated the matchup.
Arraez is 13-for-24 (.542) with two doubles, a triple, a home run, and a 1.393 OPS. He last faced Pfaadt in June and went 3-for-3 with a single, triple, and home run, totaling eight bases in the process. Tonight, we just need two to clear the line.
While Pfaadt had a recent of four consecutive scoreless outings, he has allowed nine earned runs in his last two starts. He also ranks in the 10th percentile with a 16.7% strikeout rate. That makes Arraez a particularly difficult matchup for him given how rarely he strikes out. Should his success against Pfaadt continue tonight, he will clear this line with two singles or an extra base hit.
Pick: Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Total Bases
