Today’s MLB Betting Prediction | Mets vs Padres Odds, Expert Picks Tuesday April 11
Alejandra Villa Loarca/Newsday RM via Getty Images. Pictured: David Peterson
- The Mets host the Padres in a Tuesday matchup between a pair of National League playoff hopefuls.
- Our expert is targeting the first five innings of this matchup and feels one side has an advantage early.
- Charlie Disturco previews the game and gives his best bet for Padres vs. Mets below.
Padres vs. Mets Odds
-112 / -108
-112 / -108
In a rematch of last year’s Wild Card Round, the New York Mets and Max Scherzer took down Yu Darvish and the San Diego Padres in the series opener. New York blanked the Padres while Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil picked up a pair of 2 RBIdoubles en route to a 5-0 win.
Joe Musgrove remains sidelined for SD — he would’ve been in line for the start today in what would’ve been a crazy environment after last season’s events — which means left-hander Ryan Weathers is tabbed for the spot start. He made his season debut against Arizona and threw five innings of two-run ball.
New York, meanwhile, hands the ball to David Peterson, who looks to rebound after a beat down by the Brewers.
Here’s how to bet this high-intensity series in a battle between southpaws.
Weathers threw five innings in his season debut against the Diamondbacks and remains a fill-in rotation piece while Musgrove is sidelined. The left-hander made just one appearance last season — the rest he spent in Triple-A — but there’s a large sample size from his rookie season in 2021 to gauge the 23-year-old.
There are a few concerns regarding Weathers when just looking at his Triple-A numbers from last season. He walked 4.17 batters per 9 and was hammered to the tune of a 6.73 ERA — 6.54 xFIP, 7.21 FIP — and gave up 2.27 HR/9.
In his rookie season in 2021, Weathers made 30 appearances and struggled to limit hard contact and keep batters off the bases. His strikeout numbers remained sub-20% and he relied on balls in play for outs. That didn’t work to his benefit, as opponents had a .276 xBA and he finished with a 5.30 xERA. He gave up 20 home runs in 94 2/3 innings.
While that was two years ago when he was 21, his Triple-A numbers being arguably worse and it happening last season is a concern.
The bullpen has picked up where it left off last season and remains top 10 in xFIP. The unit ranks inside the top 10 in LOB% and second in K%, too.
Offensively, the Padres have graded out as average as could be. They have a 100 wRC+ and are 16th in wOBA. A positive: they are inside the top 5 in walk rate.
Xander Bogaerts has been red hot since joining the Padres in the offseason and enters with hits in 10 of 11 games this season. He’s hitting .325 with three home runs and eight RBI in the middle of a San Diego lineup that’s star-studded with Juan Soto and Manny Machado.
It’s also worth noting that 42-year-old Nelson Cruz will draw the start with a left-hander on the mound for New York. He has hit .350 with a pair of home runs and nine RBI in just 20 at-bats. Fernando Tatis Jr. remains suspended through the team’s first 20 games.
It has been a tale of two starts for Peterson so far this season. He mitigated damage against the Marlins despite nine hits in his season debut — one run — before being battered by the Brewers for five runs on five hits and five walks. The southpaw has battled control issues his entire career and now draws a patient San Diego offense at the plate.
Peterson took a huge step forward last season. In 2021, he was shelled to the tune of a 5.96 xERA, a .279 xBA and .478 xSLG. The former first rounder struggled limiting barrels and was home-run prone, too. But the following season he cleaned up across the board. His barrel rate dropped 2.1% and his xBA fell all the way to .231. His xFIP even sat at a respectable 3.31.
Which Peterson the Mets get is going to be a question all season long. One thing has remained constant across his time at the bigs and it’s been a double-digit walk rate. Patient teams can make you pay for free passes and if Peterson struggles to limit hard hits, he’s in for a short outing.
Peterson also oddly enough struggled at home (4.42 ERA) as opposed to on the road (3.25) last year. Citi Field is a notorious pitcher-friendly park, but the left-hander struggled in front of the home crowd.
Like San Diego, the Mets bullpen ranks inside the top 10 in xFIP but can run into trouble with limiting the long ball (23rd in HR/9) and control (20th in BB/9). They are fifth in LOB%.
Offensively, the Mets graded out slightly above average against left-handed pitching last season. They were 12th in wRC+, 14th in OPS and 15th in wOBA. But they did rank seventh in BB/K rate and remain a disciplined offense at the plate. New York had the third-lowest strikeout rate last season, forcing opposing defenses to beat it by making plays.
There hasn’t been many changes to the lineup from last season. Starling Marte is nursing a neck injury and remains day-to-day. He did not play in the series opener against San Diego but his presence is extremely important atop the Mets lineup. He is hitting .303 with four stolen bases thus far.
Padres vs. Mets Betting Pick
Peterson’s control issues are a bit of a concern at times, but there’s a clear pitching edge here in favor of the Mets.
Weathers’ lack of control is a blatant problem, especially with such a low strikeout rate. His issues in Triple-A last season just highlight the volatility of the southpaw who draws a tough matchup against a Mets offense that is disciplined at the plate. I expect Weathers to struggle en route to an early exit.
Peterson’s step forward last season makes me unconcerned by his struggles against Milwaukee a week ago. A 3.31 xFIP is promising and his strikeout rate increased toward 28%. If he’s able to reel in his control a bit, Peterson has all the talent to shut down the opposition.
Rather than getting involved with bullpens — and the offenses are a wash to me — I’m attacking the biggest edge and that’s starting pitching. I expect the Mets to jump on Weathers early while Peterson steadies the ship in an emotional series that still stings New York. If you aren’t comfortable fading Weathers and backing the Mets over the first five, look toward a TT over or total bases props for Francisco Lindor/Pete Alonso.
But I trust Peterson to get the job done and the Mets to force Weathers out early. Back the Mets F5 to (-145).
Pick: Mets F5 ML (-145 or Better)
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