MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions | Padres vs Rockies Betting Preview
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Elias Diaz and Kyle Freeland.
- The Padres host the Rockies in Friday night MLB action.
- Colorado came away with an upset win on Opening Day, but our expert is avoiding the sides and targeting a player prop.
- Continue reading to see Tony Sartori's best bet and analysis.
Rockies vs. Padres Odds
-122 / +100
-122 / +100
The second installment of this four-game NL West Division series is set to get underway on Friday evening with the San Diego Padres hosting the Colorado Rockies.
Colorado won the first matchup 7-2 on Opening Day, mainly due to an offensive explosion that culminated with seven runs on 17 hits.
Here’s a look at the odds, as well as my Rockies vs. Padres betting pick.
Denver native and left-handed hurler Kyle Freeland is slated to take the mound for Colorado. Last season was yet another tough campaign for the veteran pitcher, who has never really reached his potential since his breakout season in 2018.
For the fourth consecutive year, Freeland posted a losing record with an ERA north of four and a WHIP higher than 1.40. His underlying metrics were even worse, ranking in the 16th percentile (or lower) in HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Barrel%, K%, and Whiff%.
At this point, we know what we are getting from Freeland, who likely will never return to that 2018 form. In this matchup specifically, we are going to fade his strikeout prop at 3.5 and take the Under.
First of all, this early in the season, starting pitchers typically do not go deep into games in order to save their arms for the marathon that is the 162-game MLB season. In his first start of the season last year, Freeland went just 3 2/3 innings in a tough outing against the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers.
Secondly, Freeland’s specialty is certainly not the punch-out. Last season, he ranked in the 14th percentile in K% and 13th percentile in Whiff%.
We should see a bounce back from the Padres following the brutal loss on Opening Day, especially against Freeland. Through 168 career plate appearances against the left-hander, this current San Diego roster boasts a .260 BA, .479 SLG, and .350 wOBA.
This roster also possesses a strong 13.1 K% and 15.6 Whiff% over that same span against Freeland, only striking out 22 times.
These numbers should not be all that surprising given the construction of this lineup, which features a ton of strong hitting talent and guys who avoid striking out.
When facing left-handed pitching last season, the Padres ranked ninth in the league in K% at a mere 20.4%. Looking at San Diego’s projected lineup for this contest, seven of the nine batters possessed a K% south of 21% last season.
Rockies vs. Padres Betting Pick
While Freeland’s strikeout prop is set low at 3.5, we are still going to roll with the Under. It could be a short night for the left-hander, who typically struggles against the Padres.
Over his past 13 starts against San Diego, Freeland possesses a 5.00 ERA and has recorded three or fewer strikeouts in nine of those 13 outings. The Padres boast a deep lineup full of guys who avoid the punch-out, which should especially be problematic against Freeland and his poor K%/Whiff%.
Pick: Kyle Freeland Under 3.5 Ks (Bet to -125)
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