Alex Pereira vs. Andreas Michailidis Odds, UFC 268 Pick & Prediction: Highly Anticipated Kickboxer Debuts (Saturday, November 6)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Alex Pereira.
- Alex Pereira (-250) makes his highly anticipated UFC debut against Andreas Michailidis at UFC 268.
- Pereira is a world-champion kickboxer who has knocked out middleweight champion Israel Adesanya twice.
- Erich Richter breaks down the featured prelims and makes his betting picks below.
Alex Pereira vs. Andreas Michailidis Odds
|Over/Under||1.5 (-145 / +115)|
|Venue||Madison Square Garden|
|Time||Approx. 9:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute UFC odds here.|
With much fanfare, another UFC debut comes this weekend at UFC 268. And perhaps a star will be born in the promotion, since Alex Pereira is the only fighter to knockout middleweight champion Israel Adesanya (in kickboxing).
Welcoming him to the octagon is Andreas Michailidis, who is 13-4 in his career with four losses coming by KO/TKO. He will clearly want to avoid striking exchanges with Pereira, who is one of the most decorated kickboxers to have come into the UFC since Alistair Overeem.
Michailidis is far from a top-level striker, as he is mostly wild and exposed when entering into striking range. His four losses by knockout is a bad sign for this fight against Pereira, who has next-level power in his hands.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||N/A||10:00|
|Weight (pounds)||185.8 lbs.||185 lbs.|
|Date of birth||7/7/87||7/18/88|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||0.00||4.8|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||0.00||4.4|
|Take Down Avg||0.00||0.75|
Pereira has only four fights on his record in MMA, and they’ve gone as expected for a kickboxer. He has three wins by knockout and one loss by submission. Pereira only has one MMA fight since 2016, when he left the sport to go back to kickboxing.
His return to Legacy Fighting Alliance in 2020 came with a ton of fanfare, and he was a -700 favorite in the fight against Thomas Powell. He defended a few takedowns against the cage and knocked Powell out at the end of round 1.
There are a ton of concerns with Pereira in his MMA career. His defensive grappling, ability to get up after a takedown, and clinch work all will likely be a problem going forward.
However, his opponent might not be the one to take advantage of these weaknesses. Michailidis is a wild striker who swings wildly with right and left hooks. It is a bizarre style to put up against a striker like Pereira.
It is possible that the Greek-born Michailidis resorts to wrestling in this fight, which would certainly increase his chances of winning.
Moreover, Michailidis often goes for the back when he does land a takedown. Pereira will likely get submitted if that happens since his grappling is years behind most people in the UFC.
This could look similar to Claressa Shields in the PFL. The champion boxer couldn’t find anyone to strike with her because her grappling was so behind.
Pereira vs. Michailidis Pick
Make no mistake, I will be fading Pereira in the future. His strong striking is going to be nullified by his inability to grapple at some point. I’m just unsure that Michailidis is the fighter to accentuate those weaknesses.
The UFC is probably looking to build Pereira into a star, and Michailidis might have some of the worst defensive striking in the UFC. Expect Pereira to size up knockout shots early in this fight. Michailidis would have to turn into a wrestler if he really wants to win this fight.
If you are looking to fade Pereira this weekend like many others, Michailidis’ submission prop (+1200) is as good of a value as you’ll find on this card.
Furthermore, DraftKings offers a “decision only” prop for Michailidis at +110. In that prop, if the fight ends by finish the bet is a push. If Michailidis wins a decision, you win, and a Pereira decision win would be a loss.
The only issue betting those props above is that I don’t believe that Michailidis will go in there with a grappling-first strategy. The way he charges opponents with his hands down just leaves his chin extremely exposed.
The under 1.5 rounds prop at +115 covers the early Pereira knockout. Be prepared to live bet Michailidis during the second round if he survives. I also played his submission prop down to +950 because of Pereira’s gaps in grappling.
The Pick: Under 1.5 rounds +115 | Michailidis by submission +1100
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