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Updated Andrei Arlovski vs. Jared Vanderaa UFC 271 Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back the Legend to Extend His Win Streak (Saturday, February 12)

Updated Andrei Arlovski vs. Jared Vanderaa UFC 271 Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back the Legend to Extend His Win Streak (Saturday, February 12) article feature image
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Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC fighter Andrei Arlovski.

  • Andrei Arlovski is set to face Jared Vanderaa in a Heavyweight battle at UFC 271.
  • Arlovski enters the bout at the favorite (-140 odds) on a two-fight win streak. Will the MMA legend continue his streak?
  • Sean Zerillo breaks down the featured prelim.

Updated Andrei Arlovski vs. Jared Vanderaa Odds

Arlovski Odds
-145
Vanderaa Odds
+125
Over/Under
2.5 (-195 / +155)
Venue
Toyota Center, Houston
Time
Approx. 9:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

UFC veteran Andrei Arlovski returns to the Octagon to face up-and-comer Jared Vanderaa in the featured prelim of UFC 271.

The 43-year old Arlovski was as busy as he’s ever been in 2021 and went 2-1 over the course of the year — he’s 4-1 in his past five fights. Vanderaa has just four fights under his belt, including his win in Dana White’s Contender Series, but he has suffered two losses by TKO.

Will the ‘The Pitbull’ continue to defy age, or will youth win out in this scrap? I break down how the two Heavyweights stack up and how I’m approaching this fight below.

Tale of the Tape

Arlovski Vanderaa
Record 32-20 (2 NC) 12-6
Avg. Fight Time 9:04 9:27
Height 6’3″ 6’4″
Weight (pounds) 240 lbs. 265 lbs.
Reach (inches) 77″ 80″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 2/4/79 5/12/92
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.70 4.50
SS Accuracy 44% 50%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.03 5.24
SS Defense 57% 39%
Take Down Avg 0.43 0.40
TD Acc 36% 20%
TD Def 78% 20%
Submission Avg 0.2 0.0
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Arlovski will make his 37th walk to the Octagon on Saturday for his 55th professional fight. It seems inconceivable that a man who made his professional debut in 1999, his first octagon appearance at UFC 28, and who won the Heavyweight championship at UFC 51 could still be fighting at this level.

Still, Arlovski remains the perfect low-level gatekeeper — with sufficient movement, quickness, and volume — to test the bottom-of-barrel Heavyweights on the UFC roster.

That’s about where I rate Vanderaa, who I suspect will have a difficult time chasing down Arlovski without eating a ton of jabs and leg kicks. The veteran will stick and move constantly, and I’m not sure that Vanderaa has a game plan to counteract that, aside from bum-rushing the borderline senior citizen.

I doubt that Vanderaa can replicate his output from the Justin Tafa fight (121 significant strikes) against an opponent who won’t stand in front of him. His prior success has come through his grappling and ground and pound.

Still, Arlovski is likely the superior grappler (career 78% takedown defense), and I think that he’s the one who should shoot for takedowns (0.43 per 15 minutes for his career) if Vanderaa can close distance; Jared is a complete fish on his back.

Arlovski vs. Vanderaa Pick

Arlovski’s chin has seemingly made a comeback, but he can’t take too many clean shots at his advantaged age. That said, I’m not sure that Vanderaa has the power to put him away unless he gains top position – where any Heavyweight would be dangerous.

I show value on Arlovski’s moneyline (projected 62%, -162 implied), but I prefer his odds to win by decision (projected +116, listed +140), as I do in all of his fights at this stage of his career.

The Pick: Andrei Arlovski Wins by Decision (+140)

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