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Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich UFC 277 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Back Texas’ Own in Likely Slobberknocker? (Saturday, July 30)

Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich UFC 277 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Back Texas’ Own in Likely Slobberknocker? (Saturday, July 30) article feature image
Credit:

Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC heavyweights Derrick Lewis and Sergei Pavlovich

Lewis vs. Pavlovich Odds

Lewis Odds
+135
Pavlovich Odds
-155
Over/Under
1.5 (+125 / -155)
Venue
American Airlines Center (Dallas)
Time
Approx. 11 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN+ Pay-per-view
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

Few fights at Saturday’s UFC 277 event offer the type of intrigue that heavyweights Derrick Lewis and Sergei Pavlovich do.

The two big men meet in a highly anticipated main-card matchup, with Texas’ own Lewis (26-9) meeting the equally intimidating and powerful Pavlovich (15-1).

Will the fight be a quick one like so many expect? Let’s break it down.

Tale of the Tape

Lewis Pavlovich
Record 26-9 15-1
Avg. Fight Time 9:22 2:55
Height 6’3″ 6’3″
Weight (pounds) 260 lbs. 257 lbs.
Reach (inches) 79″ 84″
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Date of birth 2/7/1985 5/13/1992
Sig Strikes Per Min 2.56 6.08
SS Accuracy 50% 50%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.51 4.45
SS Defense 41% 46%
Take Down Avg. 0.60 0.00
TD Acc 28% 0%
TD Def 55% 66%
Submission Avg 0.0 0.0

A heavyweight matchup between two finish-reliant brawlers with poor cardio can only play out in one of two ways: quick finish or gassy slop-fest.

Surprisingly, these fighters are a combined 7-2 on the scorecards. But one must imagine Lewis would benefit from a close, low-volume fight in his home state of Texas.

While Lewis isn’t a technical fighter or the best minute-winner, his presence and power still represent a serious step up in competition for Pavlovich relative to the Russian’s previous opponents.

Lewis has competed with the best heavyweights in the world for nearly a decade, and Pavlovich’s best win – over an aged Shamil Abdurakhimov – is someone Lewis knocked out in the fourth round back in 2016.

Experience and strength of schedule certainly point toward Lewis, though he may certainly be reaching the tail-end of his career.

He likely has the grappling upside here, too, though. Pavlovich’s lone loss came after a takedown and ground and pound from Alistair Overeem.

Lewis utilized the same trip technique in his past two bouts against Chris Daukaus (leading to a knockout) and Tai Tuivasa (leading to a pair of takedowns) in his past two fights. If he can pine Pavlovich up against the cage, take him down and land a couple of big shots, it could be a wrap.

And Lewis owns the puncher’s chance of all puncher’s chances in any matchup.

Lewis vs. Pavlovich Pick

Pavlovich does have a five-inch reach advantage, and he’s undoubtedly faster and more technical.

Still, despite some decision wins – including a five-round fight on the regional scene – his cardio and durability in a slugfest remain a question mark.

The Russian opened closer to +120 in this matchup, but the line has flipped. I would have taken either fighter at this number in what essentially amounts to a coinflip matchup.

Pavlovich certainly had value at the open, but Lewis seems like the clear value side at the close; you can bet him to +120.

The Pick: Derrick Lewis (+125, 0.5u) at Draftkings

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