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Drew Dober vs. Rafael Alves UFC 277 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Live Underdog Early in Fight? (Saturday, July 30)

Drew Dober vs. Rafael Alves UFC 277 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Live Underdog Early in Fight? (Saturday, July 30) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC lightweight Drew Dober

Dober vs. Alves Odds

Dober Odds
-170
Alves Odds
+145
Over/Under
1.5 (-165 / +135)
Venue
American Airlines Center (Dallas)
Time
Approx. 9 p.m. ET
Channel
ABC and ESPN
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.

Fight fans likely expect fireworks when Drew Dober meets fellow lightweight  Rafael Alves on Saturday’s UFC 277 preliminary card.

Dober (24-11) and Alves (20-10) both look to build off recent victories as they move up the 155-pound ladder.

Which fighter has the edge? Let’s look at the matchup.

Tale of the Tape

Dober Alves
Record 24-11 20-10
Avg. Fight Time 7:53 8:14
Height 5’8″ 5’8″
Weight (pounds) 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach (inches) 70″ 68″
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Date of birth 10/19/1988 11/14/1990
Sig Strikes Per Min 4.40 2.10
SS Accuracy 40% 47%
SS Absorbed Per Min 4.23 3.56
SS Defense 52% 58%
Take Down Avg. 0.80 0.00
TD Acc 17% 0%
TD Def 53% 60%
Submission Avg 0.1 1.8

Alves is a dangerous fighter with an early finishing upside in any bout before fading in the second half of his matchups. Conversely, Dober is a master survivalist who outlasts opponents with superior cardio and durability.

As a result, Alves’s violence props (inside the distance, submission, win in round 1) and Dober’s late props or live bets are the best ways to wager on such a stylistic clash.

Alves carries enough power to stun Dober on the feet, but he’ll likely have to turn that opportunity into a club ‘n’ sub to secure the finish. And he’s a highly opportunistic grappler who can seize upon that chaos.

Alves might even be able to take down Dober (52% takedown defense) and go to work from there.

Dober vs. Alves Pick

I expect Alves to have frontloaded success in this matchup, but once the momentum flips and Dober takes over, it should be one-way traffic for the American.

Alves wins by submission (projected +343, listed +480 at Caesars), or Alves wins inside the distance (projected +225, listed +275) have my attention from a pre-fight betting perspective. I’m going to think about adding a position

However, the better angle may be to wait to play Dober live after Round 1, hopefully at a plus-money price, if he can survive the opening frame.

The Pick: Drew Dober Live after Round 1

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