Drew Dober vs. Rafael Alves UFC 277 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Live Underdog Early in Fight? (Saturday, July 30)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC lightweight Drew Dober
Dober vs. Alves Odds
Fight fans likely expect fireworks when Drew Dober meets fellow lightweight Rafael Alves on Saturday's UFC 277 preliminary card.
Dober (24-11) and Alves (20-10) both look to build off recent victories as they move up the 155-pound ladder.
Which fighter has the edge? Let's look at the matchup.
Tale of the Tape
| Dober | Alves | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-11 | 20-10 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:53 | 8:14 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 68" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/19/1988 | 11/14/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.40 | 2.10 |
| SS Accuracy | 40% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.23 | 3.56 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg. | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 17% | 0% |
| TD Def | 53% | 60% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 1.8 |
Alves is a dangerous fighter with an early finishing upside in any bout before fading in the second half of his matchups. Conversely, Dober is a master survivalist who outlasts opponents with superior cardio and durability.
As a result, Alves's violence props (inside the distance, submission, win in round 1) and Dober's late props or live bets are the best ways to wager on such a stylistic clash.
Alves carries enough power to stun Dober on the feet, but he'll likely have to turn that opportunity into a club 'n' sub to secure the finish. And he's a highly opportunistic grappler who can seize upon that chaos.
Alves might even be able to take down Dober (52% takedown defense) and go to work from there.
Dober vs. Alves Pick
I expect Alves to have frontloaded success in this matchup, but once the momentum flips and Dober takes over, it should be one-way traffic for the American.
Alves wins by submission (projected +343, listed +480 at Caesars), or Alves wins inside the distance (projected +225, listed +275) have my attention from a pre-fight betting perspective. I'm going to think about adding a position
However, the better angle may be to wait to play Dober live after Round 1, hopefully at a plus-money price, if he can survive the opening frame.
The Pick: Drew Dober Live after Round 1
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