Dustin Jacoby vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Bet First Fight of UFC 272

Jacoby vs. Oleksiejczuk Odds

Crowdsourced Projections: Dustin Jacoby (62.1%) 

Oleksiejczuk is a bit small for the light heavyweight division, but he carries heavyweight power in his left hand and shows good head movement in the pocket. Jacboy, meanwhile, tends to leave his head on the center line and throw naked kicks to keep the distance. That's a combination ripe for violence.

In the smaller cage at the UFC Apex, I would be extremely high on Oleksiejczuk here — he's faster, more athletic, and possesses much more finishing upside relative to his opponent. He's also 6 1/2 years younger than Jacoby and more likely to be making improvements at this point in his career.

Jacoby has proven to be durable throughout his MMA career. Still, I expect Oleksiejczuk to find his chin while mixing to the body repeatedly in the early stages of this fight. I'm just skeptical of his ability to sustain that pace for three rounds.

Jacoby can control a moderate tempo kickboxing fight at range with relative ease. Still, Oleksiejczuk can close the distance (two inches of reach, three inches shorter) and bob and weave his way into the pocket. I'm confident that he'll find the target so long as his legs are under him.

If Jacoby can chop down those legs and slow down Oleksiejczuk's movement, he should eventually pull away. Still, the latter's cardio concerns are overblown, and his attritional work to the body means that Jacoby may tire too if this fight gets extended.

I may consider a small bet on Oleksiejczuk's moneyline if the number moves back towards +185 (35% implied). Still, for now, I prefer a small bet on his odds to win inside the distance (+350 at DraftKings, projected +211) at a far more significant edge.

I'm also interested in Oleksiejczuk in Round 1 (+700) — I just don't want to take too significant a position against Jacoby's durability — but it's one that I have to consider adding to my card.

That said, Jacoby by decision (listed +225, projected +168) is an equally viable value proposition on the other side of the fight.

Bets

• Michal Oleksiejczuk wins Inside the Distance (+350, 0.25 units)
• Oleksiejczuk wins in Round 1 (+800, 0.1u)