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UFC 275 Pick & Prediction for Maheshate vs. Steve Garcia: Find Value on Round Total

UFC 275 Pick & Prediction for Maheshate vs. Steve Garcia: Find Value on Round Total article feature image
Credit:

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC fighter Maheshate.

  • Lightweight prospects Maheshate and Steve Garcia will clash at UFC 275 Saturday.
  • Garcia enters as a -185 favorite against Maheshate who makes his debut on the big stage.
  • Sean Zerillo breaks down the matchup, including his betting pick.

Maheshate vs. Steve Garcia Odds

Maheshate Odds
+150
Garcia Odds
-185
Over/Under
1.5 (-140 / +100)
Venue
Singapore Indoor Stadium
Time
Approx. 9 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN 2
Odds as of Saturday and via BetMGM.

Two young Lightweight prospects, Maheshate and Steve Garcia, get a huge opportunity to shine at UFC 275. Maheshate will make is debut after getting a win in November on the Dana White Contender Series. Garcia is 1-1 in the UFC and also competed in the DWCS in 2019.

Below I preview the matchup and my pick based on my projections for tonight’s fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

Tale of the Tape

Maheshate Garcia
Record 8-1 12-4
Avg. Fight Time 15:00 7:51
Height 6’0″ 6’0″
Weight (pounds) 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach (inches) 71″ 75″
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Date of birth 1/12/99 5/22/92
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.27 4.46
SS Accuracy 29% 58%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.20 2.20
SS Defense 56% 42%
Take Down Avg. 0.0 1.91
TD Acc 0% 44%
TD Def 0% 100%
Submission Avg 0.0 0.5

Maheshate earned a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series last November as a significant underdog (closed between +400 and +575 depending upon the book), and at 22-years-old is one of the youngest fighters on the roster.

However, that was his first win against an opponent with a winning record, and he still has a lot to prove at this level. While Maheshate might have some grappling deficiencies, the Chinese fighter showed excellent heart and figures to improve with age.

Garcia will look to mix takedowns wherever possible and win the grappling exchanges. I doubt he wants to get involved in a brawl with Maheshate, particularly after getting wobbled by Charlie Ontiveros in his last fight.

I don’t see either man as a particularly potent finisher, yet this bout is expected to finish at a significant clip. An average lightweight bout goes to decision 48% of the time, and the market indicates something closer to a 35% probability for this matchup.

Maheshate vs. Garcia Pick

While I don’t project value on either side of the moneyline, I see this bout reaching a decision 44% of the time — far closer to the divisional average. I bet the over 2.5 Rounds (+140 at DraftKings) and the fight to go to a decision (+180 at Caesars).

Moreover, you could bet Maheshate to win by decision (projected +433, listed +500 at BetMGM). Still, I prefer the totals.

The Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds (+140, 0.5u) | Fight goes to Decision (+180, 0.25u)

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