Matt Frevola vs. Genaro Valdez Odds, UFC 270 Pick & Prediction: Can ‘The Steamrolla’ Win Lightweight Fight? (Saturday, January 22)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC fighter Matt Frevola.
- Veteran UFC Lightweight Matt Frevola and newcomer Genaro Valdez will square off at UFC 270 on ESPN Saturday night.
- Frevola comes in as the favorite (-195) despite losing two in a row entering the matchup.
- Sean Zerillo details how he getting betting value in this fight.
Matt Frevola vs. Genaro Valdez Odds
UFC Lightweight Matt Frevola looks to bounce back from a lightning quick loss (seven seconds into Round 1) in his most recent fight. He'll take on newcomer Genaro Valdez, a Dana White Contender Series alum, to open the ESPN televised portion of Saturday's card.
Below I preview how these fighters stack up and which side has betting value in this matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Frevola | Valdez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-3-1 | 10-0 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:57 | 5:44 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/11/90 | 1/16/92 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.73 | 6.28 |
| SS Accuracy | 37% | 39% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.49 | 9.77 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.58 | 10.47 |
| TD Acc | 37% | 50% |
| TD Def | 40% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 1.1 | 2.6 |
Valdez, who had the wildest Contender Series fight of 2021, is making his official promotional debut after securing a contract as a -1000 favorite last October when he was bloodied and nearly finished multiple times:
He'll have a puncher's chance against Frevola, who suffered the quickest loss in UFC Lightweight history in June against Terrance McKinney. However, two fights back, Frevola put forth an excellent effort against a future title challenger in Arman Tsarukyan, and the loss to McKinney likely means little in the long run, aside from a moment of bad variance.
So long as he sticks to a grappling-heavy game plan and avoids heavy exchanges on the feet, Frevola is going to look like a huge favorite in this matchup. Valdez doesn't have any standout skills despite his one-sided favoritism on Contender Series.
Moreover, Valdez puts power into every technique — whether striking or grappling — and tends to gas himself out by the middle of his fights. Conversely, Frevola can maintain a hectic, grappling-heavy pace for at least 15 minutes. Therefore, Valdez's win condition is typically limited to an early finish, no matter the matchup.
Frevola vs. Valdez Pick
I show slight value on Frevola's moneyline (projected -235), and I would consider using him as a parlay piece.
Unfortunately, I don't show value on either side of the total or any winning method props for the fight, but I do have a solid lean to the Under 2.5 or the Fight to End Inside the Distance (-168 at FanDuel) given the matchup specifics.
The Pick: Parlay: Matt Frevola ML + Tony Gravely ML (+114)
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