UFC Odds, Picks, Predictions: Nassourdine Imavov vs. Ian Heinisch Betting Preview (July 24)

UFC Odds, Picks, Predictions: Nassourdine Imavov vs. Ian Heinisch Betting Preview (July 24) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Nassourdine Imavov and Ian Heinisch.

  • Nassourdine Imamov looks to bounce back from his first UFC loss against Ian Heinisch on Saturday night.
  • Heinisch is also coming off a defeat, to Kelvin Gastelum, but has many advantages over the Frenchman in this matchup.
  • Erich Richter breaks down the fight at 185 pounds, delivering his analysis and best bet below.

Imamov vs. Heinisch Odds

Imamov Odds +142
Heinisch Odds -168
Over/Under 4.5 (-160 / +126)
Venue UFC APEX
Time ESPN
Channel Approx. 5:20 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via FanDuel

Ian “The Hurricane” Heinisch is one of the best stories in the UFC. He was a successful Division I college wrestler before getting himself into a bad place that resulted in a sentencing at Riker’s Island for drug trafficking.

Heinisch has since cleaned up his life and found solace in the UFC, where he is 4-3 enter his matchup against the 6-foot-3 Nassourdine Imavov on Saturdy night. This should be a competitive bout in which both fighters will have their durability tested.

Tale of the Tape

Imamov Heinisch
Record 9-3 14-4
Avg. Fight Time 15:00 11:24
Height 6’3″ 5’11”
Weight (pounds) 185.5 lbs. 185.5 lbs.
Reach (inches) 75″ 72″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 3/1/95 8/5/88
Sig Strikes Per Min 4.17 3.28
SS Accuracy 61% 50%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.03 2.79
SS Defense 59% 58%
Take Down Avg 0.50 1.13
TD Acc 12% 18%
TD Def 60% 60%
Submission Avg 2.0 0.8

Imavov is 1-1 in his UFC career. He is physically imposing as one of the biggest fighters in the division, which he uses this to his advantage with his counter-striking techniques.

Heinisch projects as a step up in competition from Phil Hawes, who beat Imamov back in February, due to his superior cardio. Heinisch should also have the grappling advantage over Imavov thanks to his wrestling pedigree.

The competition that Heinisch has faced also separates him from the pack. He has fought former title contenders like Kelvin Gastelum and Derek Brunson while knocking out Gerald Meerschaert.

In this fight, we should expect Heinisch to push the pace on the mat and feet. He is a higher-volume striker and likes to walk down his opponent.

The most important thing for Heinisch is going to be utilizing his wrestling, which Hawes showed Imamov struggles with.

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Heinisch vs. Imavov Pick

“Hurricane” Heinisch does not do well on his backfoot. Thankfully, his opponent likes to counterstrike, so we will see Imavov sit back while Heinisch takes the center of the octagon.

Heinisch has really struggled to get takedowns with just an 18% takedown accuracy in his career. That is very low, but he also has fought the “cream of the crop” at 185 pounds. He should have an easier time on Saturday than he did against the likes of Omari Akhmedov and Brunson.

We have not seen good cardio from Imavov, and his struggle against wrestling is a major cause for concern. Both of these are major areas of strength for Heinisch.

Furthermore, I am not sure that Imavov is the better striker. Heinisch should be able to land plenty of left body kicks, which really help bridge the distance against Imavov.

It would appear unlikely that Imavov wins this fight via finish. Heinisch has never been knocked out in his career and only submitted one time in 2017.

I believe that this fight goes to a decision at a very high clip. Heinisch should be in better shape as the fight dips into the later rounds. To win by decision he is +135, but FanDuel has Round 3 or by decision at +115 in the event of a late stoppage.

I prefer that alternate round prop instead of by decision outright in case Imavov gasses and is finished late.

Lastly, I will cover myself with the fight to go the distance at -160 in case Imavov shows significant improvements and pulls a decision win out.

The Pick: Fight to go the distance -160 | Heinisch Round 3 or decision +115

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