Odds, Pick & Prediction for William Knight vs. Marcin Prachnio: The Right Way to Bet ‘Thicc Willie’ (Saturday, February 18)

Odds, Pick & Prediction for William Knight vs. Marcin Prachnio: The Right Way to Bet ‘Thicc Willie’ (Saturday, February 18) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC light heavyweight William Knight

William Knight vs. Marcin Prachnio Odds

Knight Odds-118
Prachnio Odds-108
Goes to DecisionYes (+200) / No (-270)
VenueUFC Apex in Las Vegas
Time7:30 p.m. ET
Odds as of Thursday and via FanDuel.

After trying his hand at heavyweight, massive human being William Knight will apparently be making his return to the 205-pound division on Saturday at UFC Vegas 69.

While he's always made weight in the past, Knight did weigh in at 251 pounds in his last bout nearly a year ago. Friday's weigh-ins, where he'll need to make 206 pounds, will be interesting.

To greet him in his former division is Marcin Prachino, who is 2-4 in the UFC, though he's shown steady improvements following an 0-3 start.

Both visually and stylistically, these fighters are near polar opposites. Prachnio is a tall, skinny karate-style fighter while "Thicc Willie" is built like a defensive tackle and lists his style as "brawler" – though he's actually a talented technical grappler who competes in high-level submission fighting.

Whichever fighter can fight this fight on his terms is likely to come away with the win at Saturday's event (4 p.m. ET, ESPN+) – and we've got betting angles for both sides of it.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time11:477:38
Weight (pounds)205 lbs.205 lbs.
Reach (inches)73"74"
Date of birth4/3/19887/14/1988
Sig Strikes Per Min2.955.84
SS Accuracy59%54%
SS Absorbed Per Min2.994.15
SS Defense32%53%
Take Down Avg2.070.00
TD Acc44%0%
TD Def48%53%
Submission Avg0.50.0

As any Google image search would reveal, Knight has a lot of things going for him athletically. He's probably the strongest UFC fighter, including heavyweights, with deceptive quickness and explosiveness.

While he has plus-power on the feet, he does his best work on the ground. The stats tell the story here, with his average of more than two takedowns per 15 minutes but a sub-50% success rate.

That's because he's fairly limited with his technical wrestling but eventually able to overpower his opponents and ragdoll them onto the mat.

VICIOUS ground and pound!

👊 William Knight with the absolute POWER to end it.

We're LIVE on #ESPNPluspic.twitter.com/LF30vGwXqn

— UFC (@ufc) September 2, 2020

His fight against Alonzo Menifield demonstrates this perfectly. Menifield was getting the better of most grappling exchanges – until Knight simply picked him up. His 5-foot-10 frame is beneficial there as well. His lower center of gravity allows him to get under his opponents.

The biggest issue for Knight is his cardio. Exploding through takedowns and winging heavy shots – including occasional spinning kicks – takes a lot of gas. It's most evident when he gets stuck under his opponents or defends takedowns.

Frequently, he'll hang on his opponent's head as a defense rather than defending his hips and legs. His strength makes that a viable technique, but a costly one from an energy standpoint.

Fortunately for Knight, that's not much of a concern against Prachnio. Prachnio comes from a karate background, and he will desperately want to avoid grappling here.

Prachnio has a fast, accurate kicking game and decent hands. However, his defense is a liability, with a tendency to drop his hands and carry his chin high.

On the hunt! Khalil Rountree is throwing SERIOUS power 🤯

[ #UFC257 LIVE on @ESPN | #InAbuDhabi | @VisitAbuDhabi ] pic.twitter.com/Jn6qduipbS

— UFC (@ufc) January 24, 2021

That's fine at range – since he can evade rather than block – but a problem in close quarters.

Those issues were evident during his first three UFC fights – all first-round knockout losses. While he's looked better since then, his willingness to get into slugfests is not a great sign against Knight.

Still, he should be the better striker at range, and certainly down the stretch if this fight goes long. Knight has his own defensive limitations, mainly due to his small height for the division, allowing him to get picked apart from the outside.

Knight vs. Prachnio Pick

This is one fight in which the venue and cage size could be a crucial detail. It's happening at the UFC Apex center, which has a considerably smaller octagon than the one used when the UFC travels to other venues.

That's a huge benefit to Knight, who should be able to corral Prachnio against the fence fairly easily, before dragging him to the ground or beating him up with strikes from in tight.

The light heavyweight version of Knight has also been far better from a cardio standpoint, going 2-1 in decisions. That's probably not a coincidence. Carrying the extra weight at heavyweight certainly requires more energy. Additionally, the process of getting down to 205 likely involves lots of extra running and cardio for Knight.

For that reason, I prefer betting Knight's moneyline rather than inside the distance or parlays with the under. Those are also solid bets, though, as a shorter fight certainly benefits Knight. If the line continues to move his way and gets beyond -125 or so, I'd start considering those options.

This is another fight to watch from a live betting standpoint, as well. If Knight sells out early but doesn't get the finish, Prachnio could end up with pretty long odds that are worth betting live.

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