Shane Burgos vs. Billy Quarantillo Odds, Pick, Preview: Find Value in Decision Prop at UFC 268
Steven Ryan/Getty Images. Pictured: Shane Burgos.
Shane Burgos vs. Billy Quarantillo Odds
Two dangerous featherweights will meet on the main card at UFC 268 when No. 14-ranked Shane Burgos faces Billy Quarantillo Saturday. Burgos looks to snap his two-fight losing streak against Quarantillo, who is 4-1 in his past five and enters this bout off an impressive finish in July.
Below, I preview how these fighters stack up and which side has betting value in what should be an explosive bout. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Burgos | Quarantillo | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-3 | 16-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:17 | 12:05 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 70" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/19/1991 | 12/8/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 7.29 | 7.08 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 64% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 6.11 | 4.33 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 43% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.27 | 1.66 |
| TD Acc | 100% | 34% |
| TD Def | 89% | 57% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 1.7 |
This Featherweight scrap between a pair of New York natives has Fight of the Night potential — Burgos and Quarantillo land more than 14 combined strikes per minute.
Burgos is the longer (5-inch reach advantage) and more technical man, and he has faced a higher level of competition. Still, Billy Q has superior efficiency metrics (+2.75 to +1.18 strike differential) and the grappling upside (1.66 takedowns per 15 minutes, 34% accuracy).
However, Burgos has been tough to take down (89% takedown defense) or keep down once you get him to the mat. He's one of the most entertaining strikers on the roster, but "Hurricane" has underrated grappling chops too.
Burgos vs. Quarantillo Pick
Quarantillo typically wins his fights by outworking his opponents and mixing in takedowns; however, Burgos is the perfect opponent to counteract those strengths.
The only concern on Burgos' side is his chin, following a brutal knockout loss against Edson Barboza in May. Burgos has been through several wars and sustained a ton of damage; the nature of that loss left some lingering questions about his durability moving forward.
A healthy Burgos wins this fight, but I can't shake the feeling that he might crumble from a punch that he would have previously shaken off, and I no longer trust his ability to survive in a high-volume war.
That said, I'm not interested in playing the over or the fight to go the distance despite projected value (projected -150, listed -120).
However, I also project value on Burgos to win by decision (projected +155), and I'm happy to fire on the likelier minute winner to outpoint a durable opponent.
The Pick: Shane Burgos wins by Decision (+190, 0.3u)
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