Tony Gravely vs. Saimon Oliveira Odds, UFC 270 Pick & Prediction: The Smart Way to Bet the Favorite
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC fighter Tony Gravely.
- Two DWCS alums will go head-to-head in a Bantamweight matchup when Tony Gravely and Saimon Oliveira meet in the Octagon at UFC 270.
- Gravely is a sizable favorite (-240) over the newcomer Oliveira entering Saturday's fight.
- Sean Zerillo explains why he put together a parlay to increase the betting value in the matchup.
Tony Gravely vs. Saimon Oliveira Odds
Bantamweight Tony Gravely will face newcomer Saimon Oliveira at UFC 270 just four months after losing to Nate Maness in September. Gravely is just 2-2 since joining the UFC but has nearly 30 pro fights on his resume. Oliveira gets an opportunity to shine on the preliminary portion of a Pay-Per-View card after fighting on Dana White's Contender Series in September.
Below I preview how these fighters stack up and which side has betting value in this matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Gravely | Oliveira | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 21-7 | 18-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:46 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/28/91 | 4/21/91 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.14 | 3.13 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.27 | 3.13 |
| SS Defense | 46% | 55% |
| Take Down Avg | 5.57 | 3.00 |
| TD Acc | 48% | 42% |
| TD Def | 50% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 0.0 |
Skill for skill, this fight may present the biggest mismatch on Saturday's card.
Gravely is an underrated, unranked talent in the UFC, with his ability to blend his striking (+0.87 differential) and grappling (5.57 takedowns per 15 minutes, 48% accuracy) to keep opponents off-balance.
Unfortunately, Gravely's cardio is often lacking; he has fallen into several submissions throughout his career, which makes a matchup with Oliveira, who owns a nasty guillotine choke, so dangerous.
If Gravely can avoid diving into that choke, keep his wits about him, and avoid gassing out late in the fight, it's challenging to envision Oliveira finding a path to victory.
However, Gravely has been known to have low fight IQ moments inside the octagon, and I can't fully trust him to avoid making a crucial mistake. Otherwise, I might lay the wood on his moneyline, where I project actionable value (projected -285).
Gravely vs. Oliveira Pick
I'll limit myself to using Gravely as a small parlay piece with another risky favorite in Matt Frevola.
I don't show value with regards to the total. However, I show slight value in the winning method market on Gravely by decision (projected +108) and Oliveira by submission (projected +542).
However, the under 2.5 Rounds and Gravely to win inside the distance were my initial reads on the fight, so we'll stick with the small parlay paring.
The Pick: Parlay: Matt Frevola ML + Tony Gravely ML (+114)
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