Mike Perry vs. Tim Means Odds
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One of the most colorful personalities in the UFC will be in action on Saturday's main card when Mike Perry faces off against Tim Means at UFC 255. Neither man is in contention for a top spot in the division, but Perry has been able to bring a lot of attention (whether positive or not) to his recent fights.
Perry will seek to string together back-to-back wins for the first time since 2017, while Means is seeking his first win streak since 2016.
Below I break preview the matchup and odds for this truly interesting bout. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.
Tale of the Tape
| Perry | Means | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-6 | 30-12-1 (1 NC) |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:32 | 4:19 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 175.5 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/15/91 | 2/20/84 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.36 | 4.92 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 46% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.41 | 3.53 |
| SS Defense | 56% | 61% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.66 | 0.98 |
| TD Acc | 46% | 42% |
| TD Def | 76% | 63% |
| Submission Avg | 0.0 | 0.2 |
Mike Perry vs. Tim Means Betting Pick
It's embarrassing that the UFC is giving Perry a feature spot on the main card of a PPV amidst domestic violence allegations and following his assault of an elderly man over the summer.
And Perry has treated this opportunity like a joke, badly missing weight for this bout — after which he dabbed, because of course he did — while flaunting a diet consisting of burgers, pizza and brownies just two weeks out from the fight.
Can’t believe I’ve even been here this long. Maybe I should just lay the gloves down. I don’t want it. I’m just in over my head with this weight. I was just 189 and now I’m 177 and I can’t sweat. I ran with a nice sauna suit , got in the portable sauna for 15 minutes , nothing
— Platinum Mike Perry (@PlatinumPerry) November 20, 2020
Perry only shed 1.5 pounds in the next seven hours after sending the above tweet, and he'll forfeit 30% of his purse as a result.
Perry has the power to put Means away at any point, but given his lack of respect for this bout in addition to Means' size advantage (three inches taller, four inches of reach), experience and output (+1.39 to -0.05 significant strike differential), it's easy to see Means staying on the outside and forcing an out-of-shape opponent to chase him for 15 minutes.
I think Perry's grappling is underrated — he actually engaged with and controlled Mickey Gall on the mat for more than a round (5:44) — but Means is still the more well-rounded competitor.
He was hurt by both Daniel Rodriguez and Niko Price within the past two years, however, showing a potentially declining chin in the latter stages of his career (44 professional fights).
I show projected value on Means to win by decision (projected +267), and I would look to play that prop down to +312. BetMGM currently has that prop listed at +260, so be sure to shop around for the best odds on that prop.
The Pick: Means to win by Decision (bet at +312 or better)
