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UFC 257 Odds & Picks: How to Bet Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Ribas (Saturday, Jan. 23)

UFC 257 Odds & Picks: How to Bet Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Ribas (Saturday, Jan. 23) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Ribas square off.

  • Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Ribas kick off the UFC 257 main card with an exciting fight in the women's strawweight division.
  • Ribas has been dominant in her short career and enters this fight as a massive betting favorite (-350 odds).
  • Sean Zerillo analyzes the bout, including whether there is value on either side of the matchup.

Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Ribas Odds

Rodriguez odds
Ribas odds
2.5 (-218/+165) 
Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi
Approx. 10 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday evening and via PointsBet

Amanda Ribas has established herself as one of the rising stars of the strawweight division, and she’ll look to move to 5-0 since joining the UFC as she meets fellow Brazilian Marina Rodriguez in the first bout of the pay-per-view portion of the card Saturday night.

Ribas most recently defeated Paige VanZant via submission back in July at UFC 251. Rodriguez is 2-1-2 since joining the company, and is coming off her first loss, a split decision result against Carla Esparza on July 26.

Who has the edge in this one? I’ll break down the matchup and betting odds below, and you can find my full breakdown of Saturday’s card here.

Tale of the Tape

Rodriguez Ribas
Record 12-1-2 10-1
Avg. Fight Time 13:01 9:53
Height 5’6″ 5’3″
Weight (pounds) 115 lbs. 115 lbs.
Reach (inches) 65″ 66″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 4/29/87 8/26/93
Sig Strikes Per Min 5.04 4.71
SS Accuracy 50% 45%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.31 1.67
SS Defense 52% 73%
Take Down Avg 0.38 2.28
TD Acc 33% 54%
TD Def 61% 85%
Submission Avg 0.2 1.9
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Rodriguez vs. Ribas Betting Pick

I always promise to be upfront about any potential biases, and Amanda Ribas – a rising star in the strawweight division – falls firmly into that category; I am a fan.

Fortunately, I don’t see any betting angle worth playing on this fight, and I don’t have to justify either taking up a position on Ribas or passing on a bet against her.

Rodriguez is stepping in on short notice for Michelle Waterson – and late replacements carry just a 38% win rate in the UFC, but her striking acumen (5.05 strikes landed per minute, 50% accuracy) is superior to Ribas’ – and she should have a major edge on the feet if Ribas doesn’t get the fight to the ground (2.28 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, 54% accuracy).

Unfortunately for Rodriguez, she’s not particularly adept off of her back, so if the black-belt judoka does take her for a ride, she’s likely to remain there for the duration of the round.

As a result, it’s hard to pick against Ribas in this spot – if she sticks to a grappling heavy gameplan, she should win minutes with ease and cruise to her fifth consecutive win with the promotion.

I’ll pass on betting this one, but you can see the other matches I’m betting at UFC 257 in my full breakdown.

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