Roxanne Modafferi vs. Taila Santos UFC 266 Odds, Pick & Prediction (Saturday, September 25)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured (L-R): Roxanne Modafferi and Taila Santos.
- Roxanne Modafferi and Taila Santos open the up the second half of the prelim portion of UFC 266.
- Santos is a -400 betting favorite while Modafferi is a 3-1 underdog enter the fight.
- Sean Zerillo explains why he sees value on betting a specific Modafferi prop.
Roxanne Modafferi vs. Taila Santos Odds
Roxanne Modafferi and Taila Santos will face off in a bout that was supposed to take place in May but was scrapped because Modafferi suffered a knee injury. Modafferi is coming off a loss in her last fight and has alternated between wins and losses since 2018. Santos hasn't fought since December and is looking for her third win in a row in this bout.
Below I preview the betting odds and break down this matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can also check out my projections for the entire slate.
Tale of the Tape
| Modafferi | Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-19 | 17-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 14:07 | 15:00 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 69" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/24/82 | 6/22/93 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.13 | 3.52 |
| SS Accuracy | 30% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.03 | 2.22 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.42 | 2.00 |
| TD Acc | 23% | 80% |
| TD Def | 30% | 85% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 1.0 |
People love to bet on Roxanne Modafferi as a big underdog because “The Happy Warrior” is always game and will fight for your money.
Modafferi is typically at a significant disadvantage on the feet, even though she is happy to trade at high volume. She’s exceptionally hittable (5.03 strikes absorbed per minute, -1.90 strike differential) and her limited athleticism doesn’t allow her to track down opponents (30% striking accuracy).
Modafferi needs to secure takedowns (1.42 landed per 15 minutes, 23% accuracy) to win her fights.
Still, Taila Santos is an adept grappler (85% takedown defense) with some solid offensive wrestling of her own (2.0 takedowns per 15 minutes, 80% accuracy).
Santos doesn’t have great cardio and she may start to fade in the third round as Modafferi continues to grind along, but the Brazilian should be able to win the first 10 minutes of this fight with relative ease.
If Modafferi can force her way into the clinch in the early going and manage to put Santos on her back, she’s fully capable of winning this fight. I think she wins the third round at a decent clip and if she can secure any takedowns, it could be a round in her favor. Santos is much better in top position than she is at getting back to her feet.
However, Santos is the much more physical fighter and the far superior striker, and it’s hard to envision Modafferi having significant upside on her path to victory. An upset here would likely come as a result of a close or split decision.
Modafferi vs. Santos Pick
I project that this fight goes the full 15 minutes more frequently than the odds suggest (projected 75%, or -300) but the books appear wise to the Santos decision prop (projected -138) and I’m not going to take a lousy number.
Modafferi by decision (projected +486, listed +550) may offer value, and though it’s not a bet that I am particularly interested in making the price would force my hand at +500 or better.
I would also consider the over 2.5 rounds as a small parlay piece.
The Pick: Roxanne Modafferi wins by Decision (+550)
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