UFC 266 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Uros Medic vs. Jalin Turner (Saturday, September 25)
Quinn Rooney/Getty Images. Pictured: Jalin Turner.
Uros Medic vs. Jalin Turner Odds
Uros Medic will face fellow lightweight Jalin Turner in a fight that could very likely to end in an exciting finish for either side. This bout is one of my favorite fights on the card, as Medic is one of the most intriguing prospects in the UFC and Turner is easily his most formidable opponent to date.
Below I preview the betting odds and break down this matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can also check out my projections for the entire slate.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||1:56||7:01|
|Weight (pounds)||155 lbs.||155 lbs.|
|Date of birth||4/25/93||5/18/95|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||19.91||6.20|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||0.52||4.37|
|Take Down Avg||0.0||0.71|
Medic made his way to the UFC through Alaska FC and I typically fade fighters from that promotion since they have not had a ton of success at the highest level of MMA.
That said, “The Doctor” is seemingly one of the better prospects to make his way through Alaska. He’s dispatched all of his opponents with relative ease with none of his fights going past the six-minute mark.
Medic is highly aggressive and tries to get his opponents out of there as quickly as possible. As a result, he has significant questions surrounding his cardio and grappling.
Turner has some physical advantages over Medic (two inches taller with six inches of reach). He should be the much better grappler and he’s more than capable of fighting for a full 15 minutes.
“The Tarantula” can also maintain excellent output (6.20 strikes landed per minute). However, he has a bad case of tall man defense (45% striking defense) and tends to leave his chin up in the air, which has led to three-career knockout losses.
Medic vs. Turner Pick
I expect Medic’s to excel early in this fight before Turner eventually takes over late if he can weather the early storm.
As a result, this is a solid live betting opportunity against a fighter who both expends all of his energy early and is entirely unfamiliar with the third round.
Medic wins in Round 1 (+250) seems like the majority of the win condition for the favorite — whose line has crashed down closer to a pick’em after opening at -185 (65% implied)
I don’t show value on either side of the moneyline, but I project this bout to end inside the distance 73% of the time (-265 implied), so I see value on that prop relative to listed odds (-180 at FanDuel).
I also show value on Turner to win inside of the distance (projected +212), particularly by submission (projected +578), and I would consider a small stab on that play too.
Still, I would prefer to jump in on his live moneyline.
The Pick: Fight Ends Inside the Distance (-200) | Live bet Jalin Turner after Round 1
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